Post by vinjak on Nov 18, 2007 16:28:06 GMT -5
) A contingency plan has already been worked out with Kosovo Serbs so that they will react immediately in rejecting any unilateral declaration of independence. Serbian-controlled areas will be established in Kosovo similar to those set up in Bosnia and Croatia sixteen years ago.
b) At least some “volunteers” from Serbia proper will go to help the Kosovo Serbs. The government will take a hands-off position and claim that it had nothing to do with it.
c) The Bosnian Serbs will be encouraged to further challenge the High Representative, possibly even with a referendum initiative.
d) Large protest rallies will be staged in many cities in Serbia.
e) Efforts will be made in Parliament and in the media to significantly downgrade relations with countries which recognize Kosovo independence.
f) Serbia will renounce any responsibility for its debts in Kosovo with international financial institutions.
g) Serbia will close its boundaries with Kosovo for all traffic other than those with Serbian license plates and review its transit agreements with KFOR/NATO.
h) Serbia will consider cutting off its supply of electrical energy to Kosovo.
i) Serbia even now will encourage Russia to use the renewal of the EUFOR Mission in Bosnia in the UN Security, which is scheduled for December, to extract unacceptable concessions in exchange for its support.
j) Serbia will do some “saber-rattling” by ostentatiously moving military units closer to the boundary with Kosovo and reinforcing the police units currently there.
k) There may well be some highly-publicized departure of Kosovo Serbs, primarily from the more southern enclaves.
As these events unfold, the potential for violence and pressure for additional measures will be very high. Relations with the United States and the EU will deteriorate sharply.
The coalition partners of the DSS will see much of their work and their goals evaporating in front of them and will be confronted with either leaving the government or accepting responsibility for actions which will take them further from their professed reasons for joining the government in the first place.
The problem is that although I see this train wreck comely clearly down the line, I just don’t see how it will be stopped.
This is an extract from Mongomerys latest crap on B92
www.b92.net/eng/insight/opinions.php?nav_id=45512
b) At least some “volunteers” from Serbia proper will go to help the Kosovo Serbs. The government will take a hands-off position and claim that it had nothing to do with it.
c) The Bosnian Serbs will be encouraged to further challenge the High Representative, possibly even with a referendum initiative.
d) Large protest rallies will be staged in many cities in Serbia.
e) Efforts will be made in Parliament and in the media to significantly downgrade relations with countries which recognize Kosovo independence.
f) Serbia will renounce any responsibility for its debts in Kosovo with international financial institutions.
g) Serbia will close its boundaries with Kosovo for all traffic other than those with Serbian license plates and review its transit agreements with KFOR/NATO.
h) Serbia will consider cutting off its supply of electrical energy to Kosovo.
i) Serbia even now will encourage Russia to use the renewal of the EUFOR Mission in Bosnia in the UN Security, which is scheduled for December, to extract unacceptable concessions in exchange for its support.
j) Serbia will do some “saber-rattling” by ostentatiously moving military units closer to the boundary with Kosovo and reinforcing the police units currently there.
k) There may well be some highly-publicized departure of Kosovo Serbs, primarily from the more southern enclaves.
As these events unfold, the potential for violence and pressure for additional measures will be very high. Relations with the United States and the EU will deteriorate sharply.
The coalition partners of the DSS will see much of their work and their goals evaporating in front of them and will be confronted with either leaving the government or accepting responsibility for actions which will take them further from their professed reasons for joining the government in the first place.
The problem is that although I see this train wreck comely clearly down the line, I just don’t see how it will be stopped.
This is an extract from Mongomerys latest crap on B92
www.b92.net/eng/insight/opinions.php?nav_id=45512