Post by engers on Nov 28, 2007 11:13:02 GMT -5
By Ivana Sekularac and Fatos Bytyci
BELGRADE/PRISTINA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Serbia could apply hardball tactics if Kosovo declares independence, making life harder, more expensive and frustrating for the landlocked province's 2 million people.
Talks between Belgrade and Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority ended in Austria on Wednesday with no agreement, and Serbia is drawing up an "action plan" for the period after Dec. 10, when mediators submit their conclusions to the United Nations.
Kosovo Albanians say they will declare independence soon, probably in the next three months. U.S. envoy Frank Wisner urged both sides to keep their promise to avoid a slide to violence.
Serbian Defence Minister Dragan Sutanovac has repeatedly said there will be no military reaction. But Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica refuses to discuss other plans for what his deputy calls "the blackest scenario".
He will reject any declaration and, according to Serb media, may withdraw ambassadors from capitals that recognise Kosovo.
Serbia could refuse to recognise Kosovo passports, forcing travellers to make a big detour to get to Western Europe. It could cut off electricity supplies and block power supply routes. Kosovo buys 40 percent of its power from Serbia, the rest from Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania.
"Macedonia and Greece usually have power shortages so Kosovo gets electricity from Serbia or from Bulgaria -- but even then the transit route goes through Serbia," a Serb Energy Ministry official told Reuters.
But it would not make such a move lightly, mindful of its impact on Kosovo's Serb minority, marginalised and looking to Belgrade as the provider of basic services.
"If we cut off the power supply, we would be cutting it to the Serbs as well," the official said.
A source in one Serbian ministry said Serbia "could make life more difficult in Kosovo if it wanted".
"Goods from Serbia are the cheapest in Kosovo, so if Serbia for any reason blocks borders or stops supplying Kosovo it would make life in the province more expensive," the source said.
"Serbia wouldn't necessarily say it is closing the borders, but find a pretext, for example say Kosovo has foot and mouth."
EXAGGERATING POWER
But Kosovo officials say Serbia's moves are unlikely to have any long-term impact.
Reality reflects the eight years the province has spent out of Serbia's reach. Kosovo has been under U.N. rule since 1999, when NATO expelled Serb forces accused of killing civilians while fighting separatist rebels.
It has its own state administration -- part local, part U.N.-run -- and its citizens use midnight-blue "travel documents" issued by the U.N. mission, which are however not recognised by Serbia. Police, schools, and hospitals are all locally managed.
It has an independent water supply, gets mobile telephony services from Monaco, and routes commercial flights outside Serb airspace using NATO air control. Its only practical links with Serbia are in power, trade and road transport.
"If Serbia reacts, they won't only cause problems to Kosovo but Macedonia, Albania and Greece as well. Kosovo is a transit route for these countries," Nezir Sinani, spokesman for Kosovo's power company KEK.
Besim Beqaj from Kosovo's Chamber of Commerce says the Serbs are exaggerating their power. Imports and transit trade from Serbia account for around 15 percent of total trade, and most products come from the European Union and Macedonia.
"We've already thought of this and told our partners in the region what we import from Serbia. If Belgrade acts, they will bring the goods from other countries. There will be a momentary crisis but very soon everything will be normalised," he said. (Writing by Ellie Tzortzi)
[ftp]http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSL28325472[/ftp]
BELGRADE/PRISTINA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Serbia could apply hardball tactics if Kosovo declares independence, making life harder, more expensive and frustrating for the landlocked province's 2 million people.
Talks between Belgrade and Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority ended in Austria on Wednesday with no agreement, and Serbia is drawing up an "action plan" for the period after Dec. 10, when mediators submit their conclusions to the United Nations.
Kosovo Albanians say they will declare independence soon, probably in the next three months. U.S. envoy Frank Wisner urged both sides to keep their promise to avoid a slide to violence.
Serbian Defence Minister Dragan Sutanovac has repeatedly said there will be no military reaction. But Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica refuses to discuss other plans for what his deputy calls "the blackest scenario".
He will reject any declaration and, according to Serb media, may withdraw ambassadors from capitals that recognise Kosovo.
Serbia could refuse to recognise Kosovo passports, forcing travellers to make a big detour to get to Western Europe. It could cut off electricity supplies and block power supply routes. Kosovo buys 40 percent of its power from Serbia, the rest from Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania.
"Macedonia and Greece usually have power shortages so Kosovo gets electricity from Serbia or from Bulgaria -- but even then the transit route goes through Serbia," a Serb Energy Ministry official told Reuters.
But it would not make such a move lightly, mindful of its impact on Kosovo's Serb minority, marginalised and looking to Belgrade as the provider of basic services.
"If we cut off the power supply, we would be cutting it to the Serbs as well," the official said.
A source in one Serbian ministry said Serbia "could make life more difficult in Kosovo if it wanted".
"Goods from Serbia are the cheapest in Kosovo, so if Serbia for any reason blocks borders or stops supplying Kosovo it would make life in the province more expensive," the source said.
"Serbia wouldn't necessarily say it is closing the borders, but find a pretext, for example say Kosovo has foot and mouth."
EXAGGERATING POWER
But Kosovo officials say Serbia's moves are unlikely to have any long-term impact.
Reality reflects the eight years the province has spent out of Serbia's reach. Kosovo has been under U.N. rule since 1999, when NATO expelled Serb forces accused of killing civilians while fighting separatist rebels.
It has its own state administration -- part local, part U.N.-run -- and its citizens use midnight-blue "travel documents" issued by the U.N. mission, which are however not recognised by Serbia. Police, schools, and hospitals are all locally managed.
It has an independent water supply, gets mobile telephony services from Monaco, and routes commercial flights outside Serb airspace using NATO air control. Its only practical links with Serbia are in power, trade and road transport.
"If Serbia reacts, they won't only cause problems to Kosovo but Macedonia, Albania and Greece as well. Kosovo is a transit route for these countries," Nezir Sinani, spokesman for Kosovo's power company KEK.
Besim Beqaj from Kosovo's Chamber of Commerce says the Serbs are exaggerating their power. Imports and transit trade from Serbia account for around 15 percent of total trade, and most products come from the European Union and Macedonia.
"We've already thought of this and told our partners in the region what we import from Serbia. If Belgrade acts, they will bring the goods from other countries. There will be a momentary crisis but very soon everything will be normalised," he said. (Writing by Ellie Tzortzi)
[ftp]http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSL28325472[/ftp]