Post by Bozur on Mar 13, 2005 18:41:58 GMT -5
NEWS ANALYSIS
Lebanese Find a New Identity in Peaceful Protests
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
Published: March 9, 2005
BEIRUT, Lebanon, March 8 - For some Lebanese, the assassination of their former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, on Feb. 14 has unleashed the ghosts of their long civil war to trouble the streets of Beirut once again.
Dueling demonstrations in two days - anti-Syrian on Monday, pro-Syrian on Tuesday - have renewed fears of sectarian strife. The largely Christian presence in the anti-Syrian marches and the largely Shiite nature of the pro-Syrian throngs have raised questions whether the country has stabilized enough to evict its Syrian overlords without reverting to old feuds between some 17 different sects of Muslims, Christians and Druse.
But few in Lebanon believe there is a real risk of civil war. They doubt there is any appetite left for fighting. Also lacking are the weapon stockpiles and the Arab leaders willing to underwrite the competing militias and armed Palestinian factions that turned Lebanon into a substitute battleground for all manner of feuds.
On the contrary, some here say, what has been happening in the past few weeks of peaceful demonstrations amounts to the birth of a new Lebanese political identity.
"We really have a new political lab in Martyrs' Square, where people are rediscovering their citizenship," said Ziad Majed, a leader of one of the political parties that organized an encampment near Mr. Hariri's tomb. "I have never carried the Lebanese flag in my life, but now I am, and it's all related to the feeling of independence that we are all having."
Still, the risk posed by division cannot be ignored. Hezbollah proved Tuesday that it could rally a huge pro-Syrian crowd, and the turnout showed the power of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader.
"He was telling the international community that you simply cannot dismiss us anymore, we have a huge constituency who wants us to remain armed, who wants us to continue to protect our borders," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an expert on Hezbollah at the Lebanese American University. "They are playing the democratic game."
Naturally, in the weeks since Mr. Hariri's assassination, which sharply intensified demands that Syria leave, it has been Damascus and its Lebanese supporters that sounded the starkest warnings about the threats to stability.
In Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad dropped several broad hints into a speech on Saturday that without his 14,000 troops, Lebanon could revert to the bad old days.
In both Syria and Lebanon, President Émile Lahoud has been lauded for years as the man who reunified and rebuilt the once splintered Lebanese Army. It was perhaps the one thing on which they could agree with Washington, which maintains that the 72,000-man force is now strong enough to handle any crisis.
But suddenly leading Lebanese politicians are issuing warnings about the likelihood that the military will splinter along factional lines.
In late February, Prime Minister Omar Karami, who recently stepped down under pressure, provoked outrage by saying the army "is from the people, and the people are divided."
"We've tried this before and the army disintegrated," he said.
One of the most exhilarating aspects of the nightly rallies has been the talks among all different factions and sects debating the need for some kind of truth and reconciliation commission to examine the causes of the civil war.
The question remains whether militant warlords might resurface or some might be goaded into action by the Syrians to prove the Syrians were needed. Both possibilities are largely discounted.
"There will be incidents, there will be problems, but they will be unable to recreate the old confessional struggles," said Patrick B. Renauld, the ambassador for the European Union. "They all know their limits now."
The Syrians, too, do not have quite the same free hand they once did. Lebanon is no longer just a substitute battlefield, a lever to try to bargain with Israel in exchange for the occupied Golan Heights.
Given the decrepit state of Syria's socialist bank, many Syrians stash an estimated $3 billion to $4 billion in Lebanese banks. Serious fighting would destroy their Lebanese haven. Leaders of the Syrian government might be particularly reluctant to park their money in banks lacking the same rock-solid secrecy laws.
But what remains is the vexing question of Hezbollah, Syria's main ally and an armed state-within-a-state. The group's popularity for driving out the Israeli occupiers in 2000 is such that most political groups do not support disarming it.
Previously Hezbollah had always held its rallies in its strongholds, the southern suburbs of Beirut or in southern Lebanon. Analysts here had always predicted it could unleash an overwhelming number of supporters when the moment was ripe, but until Tuesday there had been uncertainty about how many.
Sheik Nasrallah has described Resolution 1559, the United Nations call for Syria's withdrawal, as a decision for "fitna," the Arabic word for civil strife and one weighted with religious connotations.
"Nasrallah wanted to point out to the international community, if it is the vanguard of democracy, it cannot apply double standards," said Ms. Saad-Ghorayeb, at the Lebanese American University. "He wanted to say that this is what the majority wants in Lebanon, there is a consensus. How can you ignore that?"
Lebanese Find a New Identity in Peaceful Protests
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
Published: March 9, 2005
BEIRUT, Lebanon, March 8 - For some Lebanese, the assassination of their former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, on Feb. 14 has unleashed the ghosts of their long civil war to trouble the streets of Beirut once again.
Dueling demonstrations in two days - anti-Syrian on Monday, pro-Syrian on Tuesday - have renewed fears of sectarian strife. The largely Christian presence in the anti-Syrian marches and the largely Shiite nature of the pro-Syrian throngs have raised questions whether the country has stabilized enough to evict its Syrian overlords without reverting to old feuds between some 17 different sects of Muslims, Christians and Druse.
But few in Lebanon believe there is a real risk of civil war. They doubt there is any appetite left for fighting. Also lacking are the weapon stockpiles and the Arab leaders willing to underwrite the competing militias and armed Palestinian factions that turned Lebanon into a substitute battleground for all manner of feuds.
On the contrary, some here say, what has been happening in the past few weeks of peaceful demonstrations amounts to the birth of a new Lebanese political identity.
"We really have a new political lab in Martyrs' Square, where people are rediscovering their citizenship," said Ziad Majed, a leader of one of the political parties that organized an encampment near Mr. Hariri's tomb. "I have never carried the Lebanese flag in my life, but now I am, and it's all related to the feeling of independence that we are all having."
Still, the risk posed by division cannot be ignored. Hezbollah proved Tuesday that it could rally a huge pro-Syrian crowd, and the turnout showed the power of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader.
"He was telling the international community that you simply cannot dismiss us anymore, we have a huge constituency who wants us to remain armed, who wants us to continue to protect our borders," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an expert on Hezbollah at the Lebanese American University. "They are playing the democratic game."
Naturally, in the weeks since Mr. Hariri's assassination, which sharply intensified demands that Syria leave, it has been Damascus and its Lebanese supporters that sounded the starkest warnings about the threats to stability.
In Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad dropped several broad hints into a speech on Saturday that without his 14,000 troops, Lebanon could revert to the bad old days.
In both Syria and Lebanon, President Émile Lahoud has been lauded for years as the man who reunified and rebuilt the once splintered Lebanese Army. It was perhaps the one thing on which they could agree with Washington, which maintains that the 72,000-man force is now strong enough to handle any crisis.
But suddenly leading Lebanese politicians are issuing warnings about the likelihood that the military will splinter along factional lines.
In late February, Prime Minister Omar Karami, who recently stepped down under pressure, provoked outrage by saying the army "is from the people, and the people are divided."
"We've tried this before and the army disintegrated," he said.
One of the most exhilarating aspects of the nightly rallies has been the talks among all different factions and sects debating the need for some kind of truth and reconciliation commission to examine the causes of the civil war.
The question remains whether militant warlords might resurface or some might be goaded into action by the Syrians to prove the Syrians were needed. Both possibilities are largely discounted.
"There will be incidents, there will be problems, but they will be unable to recreate the old confessional struggles," said Patrick B. Renauld, the ambassador for the European Union. "They all know their limits now."
The Syrians, too, do not have quite the same free hand they once did. Lebanon is no longer just a substitute battlefield, a lever to try to bargain with Israel in exchange for the occupied Golan Heights.
Given the decrepit state of Syria's socialist bank, many Syrians stash an estimated $3 billion to $4 billion in Lebanese banks. Serious fighting would destroy their Lebanese haven. Leaders of the Syrian government might be particularly reluctant to park their money in banks lacking the same rock-solid secrecy laws.
But what remains is the vexing question of Hezbollah, Syria's main ally and an armed state-within-a-state. The group's popularity for driving out the Israeli occupiers in 2000 is such that most political groups do not support disarming it.
Previously Hezbollah had always held its rallies in its strongholds, the southern suburbs of Beirut or in southern Lebanon. Analysts here had always predicted it could unleash an overwhelming number of supporters when the moment was ripe, but until Tuesday there had been uncertainty about how many.
Sheik Nasrallah has described Resolution 1559, the United Nations call for Syria's withdrawal, as a decision for "fitna," the Arabic word for civil strife and one weighted with religious connotations.
"Nasrallah wanted to point out to the international community, if it is the vanguard of democracy, it cannot apply double standards," said Ms. Saad-Ghorayeb, at the Lebanese American University. "He wanted to say that this is what the majority wants in Lebanon, there is a consensus. How can you ignore that?"