Post by MiG on Nov 15, 2007 16:08:46 GMT -5
Looking to Brussels
Croatia dreams of escape from the usual western Balkan troubles
EACH November the European Commission issues reports on candidates for European Union membership from the western Balkans. These are awaited, rather like school reports, with some trepidation. This year's put Kosovo and Bosnia bottom of the class. Serbia's behaviour leaves much to be desired. Croatia comes top—but it could do better.
The next few weeks are busy in the Balkans. On November 17th Kosovo Albanians go to the polls. A week later it is Croatia's turn. Bosnia is looking for a new prime minister. Looming over all is the future of Kosovo, which may soon declare unilateral independence from Serbia. Yet Croatia hopes that it may be the one that gets away from the Balkan gloom.
Croats have reason to feel pleased with themselves. Last month their country was elected to the United Nations Security Council. In April it may be invited to join NATO. A Croat heads a new Balkan regional group based in Sarajevo. “It is no longer a question of light at the end of the tunnel,” says Miroslav Kovacevic, a close ally of the prime minister, Ivo Sanader. “We are out of the tunnel. Ten years ago we were constantly on the agenda of the Security Council; now we are on the council.”
Vladimir Drobnjak, Croatia's chief EU negotiator, is bullish too. He says the country aims to be ready to join in 2009. But he admits that a big problem is administrative capacity. Croats who need something from the government, such as a paper or permit, know all about this. They find it almost as infuriating as the clogged justice system and corrupt bureaucracy.
At least the economy is doing well, with growth expected to be 5.9% this year. Unemployment recently hit its lowest level since the end of the war in Croatia in 1995. Foreign investment is pouring in. But Masa Kovacevic, at the UN Development Programme, notes many things that could be done much better. Youth unemployment is 29%. The Serb and Roma minorities still face severe discrimination. Former war zones remain blighted.
The two main parties are running neck and neck before the election. The ruling Croatian Democratic Union has been hit by accusations of corruption. Its leaders respond that revelations of misdeeds in high places are proof that they are doing something about it. Not so, says Andrea Feldman, a civil activist. “There is no sense of responsibility in this government,” she says. The commission's report notes tartly that “no indictment or verdict has been issued in any high-level corruption case.”
Whether the Social Democrats can capitalise on this to win is uncertain. Ivica Racan, their longstanding leader, died in April. His successor is Zoran Milanovic, a former diplomat, but internal politics will make Ljubo Jurcic, a more lacklustre figure, prime minister if the party wins. Croatia's future EU membership should still be secure, even if it comes later than 2009. That is more than can be said for any other western Balkan country.
Croatia dreams of escape from the usual western Balkan troubles
EACH November the European Commission issues reports on candidates for European Union membership from the western Balkans. These are awaited, rather like school reports, with some trepidation. This year's put Kosovo and Bosnia bottom of the class. Serbia's behaviour leaves much to be desired. Croatia comes top—but it could do better.
The next few weeks are busy in the Balkans. On November 17th Kosovo Albanians go to the polls. A week later it is Croatia's turn. Bosnia is looking for a new prime minister. Looming over all is the future of Kosovo, which may soon declare unilateral independence from Serbia. Yet Croatia hopes that it may be the one that gets away from the Balkan gloom.
Croats have reason to feel pleased with themselves. Last month their country was elected to the United Nations Security Council. In April it may be invited to join NATO. A Croat heads a new Balkan regional group based in Sarajevo. “It is no longer a question of light at the end of the tunnel,” says Miroslav Kovacevic, a close ally of the prime minister, Ivo Sanader. “We are out of the tunnel. Ten years ago we were constantly on the agenda of the Security Council; now we are on the council.”
Vladimir Drobnjak, Croatia's chief EU negotiator, is bullish too. He says the country aims to be ready to join in 2009. But he admits that a big problem is administrative capacity. Croats who need something from the government, such as a paper or permit, know all about this. They find it almost as infuriating as the clogged justice system and corrupt bureaucracy.
At least the economy is doing well, with growth expected to be 5.9% this year. Unemployment recently hit its lowest level since the end of the war in Croatia in 1995. Foreign investment is pouring in. But Masa Kovacevic, at the UN Development Programme, notes many things that could be done much better. Youth unemployment is 29%. The Serb and Roma minorities still face severe discrimination. Former war zones remain blighted.
The two main parties are running neck and neck before the election. The ruling Croatian Democratic Union has been hit by accusations of corruption. Its leaders respond that revelations of misdeeds in high places are proof that they are doing something about it. Not so, says Andrea Feldman, a civil activist. “There is no sense of responsibility in this government,” she says. The commission's report notes tartly that “no indictment or verdict has been issued in any high-level corruption case.”
Whether the Social Democrats can capitalise on this to win is uncertain. Ivica Racan, their longstanding leader, died in April. His successor is Zoran Milanovic, a former diplomat, but internal politics will make Ljubo Jurcic, a more lacklustre figure, prime minister if the party wins. Croatia's future EU membership should still be secure, even if it comes later than 2009. That is more than can be said for any other western Balkan country.
Source: www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10141069