Post by Bozur on Dec 2, 2007 14:57:37 GMT -5
Comment: Who will Run Croatia?
29 11 2007 Uncertainty over the make-up of Croatia’s new government causes few concerns outside the country as it prepares to become the next member of the EU and NATO.
By Christopher Cviic in London
Because of Croatia’s strategic position in South-Eastern Europe and because of its important economic role in the region, its internal stability is of considerable interest both to the EU and to NATO. For the same reasons, what happens in Croatia matters also to its neighbours to the east and the south: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia for whom membership of these two blocs is, for now, a distant prospect.
Hence the close international attention paid to the results of the parliamentary elections held on November 25. Those were won by the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, led by the outgoing Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader, in office since the HDZ’s electoral victory in November 2003.
Sanader’s HDZ won 66 seats (including five from the Croatian diaspora), while the main opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, won 56. However, in order to form a government Sanader needs 77 seats in the Croatian Sabor (parliament), which means that, should he succeed, his next government would of necessity be, like its predecessor, a coalition. However, it is not yet absolutely clear that he will be able to do so.
Unlike in 2003, the SDP has not this time conceded defeat and is, despite having ended in second place, still trying to organise a centre-left majority. It can do so thanks to a prerogative held under the Croatian Constitution by President Stipe Mesic, now serving his second and last term.
The President has the power to entrust the task of forming the new government to whoever he judges best able to form a stable coalition. He has already indicated that he is in no hurry, and it may be weeks before he concludes his consultations with party leaders and actually makes his choice of who should become prime minister-designate.
Though Mesic is acting within his rights, his all-too-deliberate slowness has already caused annoyance in HDZ circles as well as some criticism in the Croatian media and among independent political analysts. Mesic is a former HDZ stalwart, who broke with its founder, the late President Franjo Tudjman in 1993 over the latter’s hardline nationalist policy on Bosnia. Nowadays he is widely seen as still associated with, and giving support to, the opposition Croatian People’s Party, HNS, a centrist ally and potential coalition partner of the SDP.
At the moment an HDZ-led coalition still looks more likely than an SDP-led one, though surprises are still possible According to some in Zagreb, within a few weeks – perhaps even by Christmas - Sanader may be able to form a coalition that would give him a stable parliamentary majority. But the price demanded by his potential coalition partners – especially the Croatian Peasant Party, HSS - may be very high not only in terms of government posts demanded but also in terms of policy changes.
That price includes huge extra expenditure on agriculture, which may cause trouble with the EU during the forthcoming crucial period of Zagreb’s accession negotiations – the more so as Croatia is hoping to finish these talks by 2009 and join by 2010.
This suggests that a period of tough political negotiations among the parties lies ahead both for Sanader and for his main rival, the SDP leader Zoran Milanovic, who took over at the head of his party in June after the death of ex-Prime Minister Ivica Racan.
Here, in the domestic political arena, Sanader probably has the edge over his younger rival. The 54-year-old prime minister is a seasoned political practitioner who held senior party and government posts under Tudjman in the 1990s and has led the HDZ since 2000. By contrast, 41-year-old Milanovic used to be a diplomat and lacks party political experience.
Milnaovic’s inexperience showed in a number of gaffes he made during the election campaign. The SDP leader’s position is also complicated by the fact that the party had chosen not him but Ljubo Jurcic, an economist, as its candidate for prime minister, a decision which is now seen by many in the SDP as a mistake.
In the end, it probably will not make all that much difference on the international scene who leads the new government in Croatia. Both Sanader and Milanovic have good relations with political leaders in Serbia and elsewhere in the region.
Sanader is known to keep in close personal touch with Serbia’s Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, while Milanovic cultivates a personal friendship with Serbia’s President, Boris Tadic.
Both parties support Croatia’s accession to the EU. However, there is a difference over NATO. Sanader supports NATO membership unreservedly. Milanovic, though personally in favour of Croatia joining the Alliance, has promised a referendum prior to taking his country into NATO.
This promise has led to raised eyebrows among western ambassadors in Zagreb. Their governments clearly regard policy continuity in Croatia as extremely important – especially in view of the current political crisis in Bosnia and a much bigger one that has been brewing for some time over the issue of the future status of Kosovo.
While these western countries are anxious not to be seen to be taking sides, since they have come to respect Sanader as an able and reliable partner, it is possible to detect an unspoken preference for the man in charge they know they can do business with. However, they will ultimately do business with whoever is in charge in Croatia.
www.birn.eu.com/en/114/10/6664/
29 11 2007 Uncertainty over the make-up of Croatia’s new government causes few concerns outside the country as it prepares to become the next member of the EU and NATO.
By Christopher Cviic in London
Because of Croatia’s strategic position in South-Eastern Europe and because of its important economic role in the region, its internal stability is of considerable interest both to the EU and to NATO. For the same reasons, what happens in Croatia matters also to its neighbours to the east and the south: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia for whom membership of these two blocs is, for now, a distant prospect.
Hence the close international attention paid to the results of the parliamentary elections held on November 25. Those were won by the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, led by the outgoing Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader, in office since the HDZ’s electoral victory in November 2003.
Sanader’s HDZ won 66 seats (including five from the Croatian diaspora), while the main opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, won 56. However, in order to form a government Sanader needs 77 seats in the Croatian Sabor (parliament), which means that, should he succeed, his next government would of necessity be, like its predecessor, a coalition. However, it is not yet absolutely clear that he will be able to do so.
Unlike in 2003, the SDP has not this time conceded defeat and is, despite having ended in second place, still trying to organise a centre-left majority. It can do so thanks to a prerogative held under the Croatian Constitution by President Stipe Mesic, now serving his second and last term.
The President has the power to entrust the task of forming the new government to whoever he judges best able to form a stable coalition. He has already indicated that he is in no hurry, and it may be weeks before he concludes his consultations with party leaders and actually makes his choice of who should become prime minister-designate.
Though Mesic is acting within his rights, his all-too-deliberate slowness has already caused annoyance in HDZ circles as well as some criticism in the Croatian media and among independent political analysts. Mesic is a former HDZ stalwart, who broke with its founder, the late President Franjo Tudjman in 1993 over the latter’s hardline nationalist policy on Bosnia. Nowadays he is widely seen as still associated with, and giving support to, the opposition Croatian People’s Party, HNS, a centrist ally and potential coalition partner of the SDP.
At the moment an HDZ-led coalition still looks more likely than an SDP-led one, though surprises are still possible According to some in Zagreb, within a few weeks – perhaps even by Christmas - Sanader may be able to form a coalition that would give him a stable parliamentary majority. But the price demanded by his potential coalition partners – especially the Croatian Peasant Party, HSS - may be very high not only in terms of government posts demanded but also in terms of policy changes.
That price includes huge extra expenditure on agriculture, which may cause trouble with the EU during the forthcoming crucial period of Zagreb’s accession negotiations – the more so as Croatia is hoping to finish these talks by 2009 and join by 2010.
This suggests that a period of tough political negotiations among the parties lies ahead both for Sanader and for his main rival, the SDP leader Zoran Milanovic, who took over at the head of his party in June after the death of ex-Prime Minister Ivica Racan.
Here, in the domestic political arena, Sanader probably has the edge over his younger rival. The 54-year-old prime minister is a seasoned political practitioner who held senior party and government posts under Tudjman in the 1990s and has led the HDZ since 2000. By contrast, 41-year-old Milanovic used to be a diplomat and lacks party political experience.
Milnaovic’s inexperience showed in a number of gaffes he made during the election campaign. The SDP leader’s position is also complicated by the fact that the party had chosen not him but Ljubo Jurcic, an economist, as its candidate for prime minister, a decision which is now seen by many in the SDP as a mistake.
In the end, it probably will not make all that much difference on the international scene who leads the new government in Croatia. Both Sanader and Milanovic have good relations with political leaders in Serbia and elsewhere in the region.
Sanader is known to keep in close personal touch with Serbia’s Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, while Milanovic cultivates a personal friendship with Serbia’s President, Boris Tadic.
Both parties support Croatia’s accession to the EU. However, there is a difference over NATO. Sanader supports NATO membership unreservedly. Milanovic, though personally in favour of Croatia joining the Alliance, has promised a referendum prior to taking his country into NATO.
This promise has led to raised eyebrows among western ambassadors in Zagreb. Their governments clearly regard policy continuity in Croatia as extremely important – especially in view of the current political crisis in Bosnia and a much bigger one that has been brewing for some time over the issue of the future status of Kosovo.
While these western countries are anxious not to be seen to be taking sides, since they have come to respect Sanader as an able and reliable partner, it is possible to detect an unspoken preference for the man in charge they know they can do business with. However, they will ultimately do business with whoever is in charge in Croatia.
www.birn.eu.com/en/114/10/6664/