Post by theblackswans on Dec 15, 2007 9:13:21 GMT -5
How is one to describe the Serbia of today? I think that the start of this autumn signals the closure of a mistaken policy conducted by Serbia, which has exacted a high price from the country itself, from its region, and also from the Europe that aspires to this region. I see the process which began in the 1980s as a single progression. It began with the revival of an expansionist state ideology aiming to change the existing order, with implications that transcended the Yugoslav borders: aiming, after the disappearance of the historic leader and the transformation of the ruling party, to realise the project of an all-Serb state in a manner that disregarded the time, the area, and the spirit of the times. We know well that this project had been thoroughly prepared, as is evident from many books describing the break-up of Yugoslavia as a textbook example of how to ground a nationalist regime. The Memorandum of the Serbian Academy laid the ideological foundations of the project; this was followed up by systematic propaganda whose main elements are still being assiduously fostered. Then came indoctrination of the masses, and military and para-military preparations for armed conflict. Serbia has in fact frequently waged war in its recent history. Those who have studied the subject will tell you that over the past two centuries Serbia has on average gone to war every six and a half years. Its longest period of peace came after the Second World War, but the wars of the 1990s lasted longer than any of the previous ones. This has been a decade of warfare, during which one state disappeared, in the course of which terrible crimes were committed, and in which Serbian society experienced a vertiginous fall, accompanied by a deep confusion regarding the country’s historical perspective. One cannot say that there was no resistance to this, but the resistance was insufficient.
Contemporary Serbia is a very neglected country, very distant from any notion of a legal state, one in which law plays a marginal role. It is a country which has seen not only war crimes, but also the murder of its own soldiers and journalists. A prime minister who understood the new times, who announced the possibility of Serbia leaving behind the chaos in which it found itself, has also been murdered. It is a very difficult situation, given the conflict with our neighbours and the continuing territorial pretensions. But the present constellation in the international context means that there will not be another war. Serbia is not strong enough to wage one. It is possible though to imagine a deepening chaos in the country, aimed at removal of the critical part of political society, its silencing. The aim is to create a great social imbalance, a social collapse. Many in Serbia ask themselves whether there might be another war. They ask because they have got used to the war atmosphere and the unpredictability of political moves. Most of the political parties agree that Europe is no longer relevant. They think that speaking about Europe will lead them to lose their parliamentary seats. This policy has revived with the reopening of the Bosnian issue, and Europe has become aware that although Serbia is exhausted, although it has paid a high price [for Miloševiæ’s expansionism], it has retained its territorial aspirations. But I do not see that the Serbians are keen to participate in yet another war, despite the fact that few show any readiness to restrain their political leaders. All in all, I do not expect a dramatic military conflict, despite all the predictions; but I do envisage an internal chaos that could destabilize the whole region. The clerical nationalists have dropped their democratic mask. Their aim is to create a large state regardless of how people will live in it. Kosovo is being used as a substitute for everything else: you cannot speak of anything, even breathe, hold elections or anything, until the issue has been solved. As for Russia, I think that the Serbian leaders have little insight into Russia’s internal political life. There is a readiness in Serbia - historically conditioned - to believe that Russia will enter into conflict with the whole world in order to save Kosovo for Serbia, in order to maintain Serbia’s friendship. Russia may wish to keep Serbia as an area through which it can further its interests and positions. But I do not think it will sacrifice its vital positions for Serbia’s sake.
Contemporary Serbia is a very neglected country, very distant from any notion of a legal state, one in which law plays a marginal role. It is a country which has seen not only war crimes, but also the murder of its own soldiers and journalists. A prime minister who understood the new times, who announced the possibility of Serbia leaving behind the chaos in which it found itself, has also been murdered. It is a very difficult situation, given the conflict with our neighbours and the continuing territorial pretensions. But the present constellation in the international context means that there will not be another war. Serbia is not strong enough to wage one. It is possible though to imagine a deepening chaos in the country, aimed at removal of the critical part of political society, its silencing. The aim is to create a great social imbalance, a social collapse. Many in Serbia ask themselves whether there might be another war. They ask because they have got used to the war atmosphere and the unpredictability of political moves. Most of the political parties agree that Europe is no longer relevant. They think that speaking about Europe will lead them to lose their parliamentary seats. This policy has revived with the reopening of the Bosnian issue, and Europe has become aware that although Serbia is exhausted, although it has paid a high price [for Miloševiæ’s expansionism], it has retained its territorial aspirations. But I do not see that the Serbians are keen to participate in yet another war, despite the fact that few show any readiness to restrain their political leaders. All in all, I do not expect a dramatic military conflict, despite all the predictions; but I do envisage an internal chaos that could destabilize the whole region. The clerical nationalists have dropped their democratic mask. Their aim is to create a large state regardless of how people will live in it. Kosovo is being used as a substitute for everything else: you cannot speak of anything, even breathe, hold elections or anything, until the issue has been solved. As for Russia, I think that the Serbian leaders have little insight into Russia’s internal political life. There is a readiness in Serbia - historically conditioned - to believe that Russia will enter into conflict with the whole world in order to save Kosovo for Serbia, in order to maintain Serbia’s friendship. Russia may wish to keep Serbia as an area through which it can further its interests and positions. But I do not think it will sacrifice its vital positions for Serbia’s sake.