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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 15, 2008 21:50:27 GMT -5
Week ahead: Weathering bad news
Get ready for economic news and financial results from Home Depot and other stores. One other thing: Congress will debate the future of the automakers.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer Last Updated: November 15, 2008: 11:52 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors returning to work Monday face what is expected to be a weeklong display of the depth of the downturn - a torrent of bad economic news.
But with stocks down roughly 35% year-to-date - as measured by the Dow 30 - has Wall Street already factored in the worst?
Some market pros think so.
"What kind of surprise can there be on the downside?" said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "We already know the worst. The only surprise would be some good news."
But more likely, he said, stocks will churn in a trading range.
"This recession is consumer led and it is likely to feel worse for the typical consumer than anything we've felt since World War II," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management. "I don't think investors have fully grasped the severity of it yet," she said.
The week ahead will be a good litmus test of investor fortitude as Wall Street looks at what will probably be one dour economic report after another.
Both the New York Empire State index and the Philadelphia Fed index are expected to show manufacturing falling deeper into a recession. Reports on housing and leading economic indicators are forecast to show declines. And the minutes from the last Fed meeting are likely to show the central bank's concerns when it cut interest rates last month. (For details, click here).
All of these reports could send stocks lower. But there is also the potential for an upside surprise, particularly as the market seems to be in the process of putting a bear market bottom in place, said Mendelsohn.
Last week, the major gauges slumped to levels not seen in roughly 5-1/2 years, hitting a point some consider to represent the lows of the current bear market. After hitting those lows on Thursday, stocks bounced back sharply as investors opted to scoop up beaten-down shares. But Friday was another down day, as investors reacted to the worst monthly retail sales report on record.
Economy
Monday: The NY Empire State index, a regional manufacturing report, is expected to slump to negative 26 in November from negative 24.6 last month. Any negative reading shows weakness.
Tuesday: The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, is expected to have fallen 1.5% in October after falling 0.4% in the previous month. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2% after rising 0.4% in the previous month.
Wednesday: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of consumer inflation, is expected to have fallen 0.8% versus a flat reading in September. October Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2% after edging up 0.1% in the previous month.
Housing starts are expected to have fallen to an annual rate of 780,000 in October from a 17-year low of 817,000 in September. Building permits are expected to have stumbled to an annual rate of 770,000 in October from a rate of 805,000 in October.
Wednesday also brings the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting in October.
Thursday: The October index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to have dropped 0.6% after rising 0.3% in September.
Also Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed index, a regional manufacturing report, is expected to have improved slightly to a reading of negative 30 in November from negative 37.5 in October.
Corporate financials
A number of retailers report results this week, including rivals Lowe's and Home Depot. All forecasts are according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
Monday: Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) is expected to report earnings of 28 cents per share, versus 38 cents a share a year ago. Target (TGT, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 49 cents per share versus 56 cents a share a year ago. Both reports are due before the opening bell.
Tuesday: Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 39 cents per share versus 59 cents a share a year ago. The report is due before the opening bell.
Thursday: Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 32 cents per share versus 34 cents a share a year ago. Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 34 cents per share versus 30 cents a share a year ago. Both report after the closing bell.
Speakers and hearings
Congress reconvenes, with several hearings scheduled for the week. A number of Federal Reserve and Bush administration officials are also due to speak.
Monday: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is slated to speak at 6:30 p.m. ET about the economy and the markets at the Wall Street Journal CEO council in Washington, D.C.
Tuesday: The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing regarding oversight of the $700 billion bank bailout plan. Paulson, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair are among the speakers.
Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on a potential bailout package for the flailing auto industry. Senate Banking Committee head Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., is also holding a hearing on the automaker bailout Tuesday, he told CNNMoney.com.
Also Wednesday, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker speak at a conference at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. The topic is lessons from the subprime crisis. Lacker is an alternate member of the Fed's policy-setting committee.
Thursday: Paulson speaks about the economy at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif. To top of page
First Published: November 15, 2008: 11:41 AM ET money.cnn.com/
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 15, 2008 21:55:21 GMT -5
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 15, 2008 21:57:12 GMT -5
is there any freaken way to predict (week by week basis) probable course that the market might take for the week ahead?
is it me or does the next week looks halloweeny?
what do you think rexxy
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 23, 2008 15:10:12 GMT -5
Overall market was down around 10% for the week.
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 23, 2008 15:24:14 GMT -5
Week Ahead: Hoping for Thanksgiving cheer
Investors gear up for a holiday-shortened trading week that brings news about Obama's economic team, reports on housing, GDP, income and spending.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer November 22, 2008: 9:51 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Streeters returning to work Monday have at least one thing they can be thankful for: Thanksgiving is one less day the market is open.
And after a week in which the S&P 500 fell to 11-1/2-year lows, an auto sector bailout went kaput and Citigroup stock fell to under $4 a share, investors need a break.
Still, for a holiday-shortened trading week, there's a lot on tap, with a series of economic reports jammed in the day before Thanksgiving. The buffet includes reports on jobless claims, income and spending, manufacturing, housing and consumer sentiment.
In addition, investors will be attuned to the latest on President-elect Barack Obama's cabinet picks. Stocks managed a big late-session rally Friday after a slew of likely cabinet appointments, including the much-anticipated Treasury secretary post, gave investors a reason to jump in at multi-year lows. (Full story)
Obama is expected to formally announce his economic team Monday, which should serve to reassure investors and subsequently give some support to flailing stocks.
In the week ended Wed. Nov. 19, investors pulled roughly $19.5 billion out of equity mutual funds, according to tracking firm Trim Tabs. In the previous week, investors pulled $31.8 billion out of funds. Investors have now cashed out of equity funds in 16 of the last 17 weeks.
"People have been wanting to see some leadership, so the announcements could alleviate some of the fear that's been in the markets," said Ryan Detrick, chief technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Investors may also benefit from the seasonal tendency of stocks to post gains in the trading days surrounding Thanksgiving, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Between the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Monday after, the Dow has gained in 14 of the last 20 years by an average of 470 points.
But in a year in which seasonal factors haven't been relevant, the Thanksgiving cheer that often pushes stocks higher may not be in effect. Holiday trading weeks are typically low trading volume and that can exacerbate volatility. Also, the U.S. financial markets will have a shortened session on Friday.
Economic news
Monday: October existing home sales are expected to have fallen to a 5.05 million unit annual rate from a 5.18 million unit rate in September, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists.
Tuesday: Third-quarter GDP is expected to be revised lower, showing that economic activity fell at a steeper rate than previously reported. GDP is expected to have fallen at an 0.6% annual rate from an initial drop of 0.3%. GDP grew at a 2.8% rate in the second quarter.
Also Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its November consumer confidence index. The index is expected to improve modestly to 39.5 from 38 in October.
Wednesday: Durable goods orders are expected to have fallen 2.5% in October after rising 0.8% in September.
Personal income is expected to have risen 0.1% in October after rising 0.2% in September. Personal spending is expected to have fallen 0.7% in the month after falling 0.3% in September.
The Chicago PMI is expected to join other November regional manufacturing reports in showing that the sector remains in recession. PMI is expected to have risen modestly to 38.5 from 37.8 in October.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to have been revised up fractionally to 58.0 from the previous dismal reading of 57.9.
New home sales are expected to have fallen to a 450,000 annual unit rate in October from a 464,000 annual until rate in September.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on the weekly unemployment report to see if the recent extension in unemployment benefits will bump up the continuing claims number from the 26-year high it hit last week. There were no economists' estimates available for the report.
Thursday: All financial markets are closed for Thanksgiving.
Friday: Financial markets close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday. Black Friday sales reports will pour in, giving investors a better sense of how weak the critical holiday period might be for the nation's chain stores. To top of page money.cnn.com/
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 23, 2008 15:26:15 GMT -5
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rex362
Senior Moderator
Pellazg
PELASGIANILLYROALBANIAN
Posts: 19,058
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Post by rex362 on Nov 24, 2008 11:34:09 GMT -5
calls/puts on QQQ or ^RUT ?
I think I will only start playing these back and forth ,single stocks are driving me crazy .....lost a months take on UTX call options from last month.
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 24, 2008 16:08:58 GMT -5
Just got me some IWM 41 puts. (looks good on www.ise.com/ ) Figured this is it for a week rally. ;D
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 30, 2008 19:36:14 GMT -5
Stocks: Brace for a rocky week ahead
Investors await retail sales figures, and the latest readings on the health of the economy, with a close eye on the labor market.
By Ben Rooney and Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writers Last Updated: November 30, 2008: 7:45 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors may be in for another challenging week as the market braces for the fallout from Black Friday sales and as a flurry of economic reports continue painting a dour picture.
"What would be more significant would be if stocks react positively [this] week in spite of bad news from the retailers," noted John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Capital Management. "That would suggest that the market is starting to look forward."
Stocks managed gains in last week's holiday-shortened week, with all three major gauges rising after 3 straight weeks of declines.
The week ended with "Black Friday," the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Investors are expecting dismal retail sales as the weak economy continues weighing on household budgets.
Sales are going to be "really bad," predicted Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams in New York. "The consensus is that parents will buy presents for their kids but not for each other."
But first results Saturday from retail research firm ShopperTrak RCT indicated a 3% gain in Black Friday sales from a year ago, although there was some concern about whether the sales could be sustained.
In addition, investors will be keeping an eye on a slew of economic reports, including readings on manufacturing, construction, factory orders and the labor market.
Thursday's weekly jobless claims report is "the only thing that matters [and] it's going to be a horror show," Rovelli said.
The jobs picture could get even darker on Friday when the government's closely watched monthly jobs report comes out. The unemployment rate is expected to climb to 6.8% from 6.5%.
Automakers will also be in focus amid growing bets that the industry will receive a government bailout after all. GM (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Chrysler's pleas were rebuffed earlier this month, but the group will appeal to Congress a second time this week.
Over the past five days, the Dow gained nearly 10%, the S&P 500 surged 12% and the Nasdaq rose almost 11%. The Dow's winning streak marked the first time the blue-chip index held gains for five days in a row since November 2007.
Stocks had rallied last week as President-elect Barack Obama announced his economic team, and the government unveiled a plan to pump $800 billion into the economy to get banks to lend to consumers and small businesses.
The gains were a strong end to a brutal month. In November, the Dow lost 5%, the S&P 500 lost 7% and the Nasdaq lost 11%. Economy
Monday: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases what is expected to be a grim report on manufacturing in the morning. November ISM is expected to fall to a 26-year low of 38, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, versus a reading of 38.9 in October.
Construction spending likely fell in October, with economists expecting the government report to decline by 0.9% after it fell by 0.3% in September.
Also on Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will give a speech on the markets and economy at the Fortune 500 forum in Washington.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also speaking Monday. He will be in Texas, talking about the Fed's policies in the financial crisis at the meeting of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce.
Tuesday: The automakers have until Tuesday to submit proposals for how they would use $25 billion in taxpayer money to make their companies "viable."
The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing next Friday on the proposals and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a hearing sometime during the week too.
Separately Tuesday, monthly auto and truck sales figures for November will be released during the normal trading session. October auto sales were the weakest in 25 years. (Full story)
Wednesday: The ISM releases its report on the services sector of the economy. The November services sector index is expected to fall to 42.6 from 44.4 in October.
Payroll services firm ADP releases its report on private sector employment in November, ahead of the big national report Friday. Employers are expected to have cut 173,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 157,000 jobs in October.
Also, the revised reading on third-quarter productivity is due in the morning, while the Fed's "Beige Book" reading on the economy is due in the afternoon.
Thursday: Factory orders are expected to have fallen 2.7% in October, when the government releases its report in the morning. Orders fell 2.5% in September.
The weekly jobless claims report is due in the morning, as well as November sales from the nation's retailers. October sales were disastrous as retailers continue to struggle with attracting consumers in an economic downturn. (Full story)
Also, before the market opens, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL, Fortune 500) is slated to release its quarterly financial report. Toll gave a glimpse into its state of affairs in early November, when it said revenue dropped 41% but also noted it had enough cash on hand to weather the turmoil.
Bernanke is scheduled to speak about housing and housing finance in Washington, D.C., at the President's Conference on Homeownership and Mortgage Initiative.
Friday: The November jobs report is released in the morning. Employers are expected to have cut 300,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 240,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 6.8% from 6.5% in the previous month.
First Published: November 29, 2008: 10:13 PM ET money.cnn.com/
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