Post by zgembo on Jul 24, 2008 11:03:56 GMT -5
Bosnia "Likely" Not to Exist in Five Years Time - Ex-CIA Balkans Expert
By: iStockAnalyst Thursday, July 24, 2008 5:54 AM
Text of report by Bosnian wide-circulation privately-owned daily Dnevni avaz, on 19 July
[Interview with Steven Meyer, professor at Washington National Defense University and former CIA specialist for Balkans, by Sanja Skuletic; place and date not given: "Next Two Years Most Critical for B-H" -- first two paragraphs are Dnevni Avaz introduction]
Next two years will be a critical period for Bosnia-Herzegovina and its future. Coming up are the most difficult issues for this country, which will either make it become a legitimate country or lead it to peaceful split, Steven Meyer, former CIA specialist for the Balkans and current professor at Washington's National Defence University, said in an interview for Dnevni Avaz. Meyer is currently on a visit to Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Frozen State
Speaking about political stability, he, in a nutshell, vividly described the situation in our region as frozen, emphasizing that our country served as an example of this frozenness. On the other hand, he pointed out that it was not possible at least not to make a fleeting mention of the military and security situation, asserting that "there is almost no chance that we will ever again see a military conflict in this area, especially not in the degree that we saw in the 1990s."
[Skuletic] What in your opinion are the preconditions for a stable future of Bosnia-Herzegovina?
[Meyer] A stable future primarily depends on economic stability and Bosnia-Herzegovina's strength to deal with the negative effects of the Stabilization and Association Agreement [SAA]. Ranked second is the necessary constitutional reform, which can be successful only if it is the product of an agreement of B-H leaders, and not a ready- made solution of the United States or Europe. If these issues are not resolved successfully, I think that Bosnia-Herzegovina has little hope to survive as a country.
[Skuletic] Do you think that Bosnia-Herzegovina, with the current ruling political structures, can overcome these difficult issues?
[Meyer] You will get me into trouble... No, I think that it cannot... However, if the international community's pressure were to go away, then perhaps Bosnia-Herzegovina's political leaders might be forced to take responsibility and find a better way to overcome these problems. Otherwise, I am a pessimist. If the current political leadership stays where it is today, and the influence of international elements stays at today's high level, then I think that it is very likely that Bosnia-Herzegovina will not exist in five years.
Bosnian Mafia
[Skuletic] Do you think that this would be allowed by, first of all, your own country, the United States?
[Meyer] Bosnia-Herzegovina is not so important for the United States. There is a small group -- the so-called "Bosnian mafia" -- in the US Government that would be disappointed, but this would not turn into a policy issue for the president. We have so many serious problems: the US foreign policy is in chaos, we cannot fix Iraq, Afghanistan is a problem, and so is Iran... This part of the world is not so important for the United States and its administration.
[Skuletic] On the other hand, the same could not be said about Europe...
[Meyer] The reaction to Bosnia-Herzegovina's split would certainly be serious in Europe. They would see it as their failure. This possibly might be acceptable to Europe if it were to unfold in a peaceful way.
[Box] Dodik Offered Him a Job
Meyer met B-H Prime Minister Nikola Spiric, Presidency Member Nebojsa Radmanovic, and RS [Serb Republic] Prime Minister Milorad Dodik. Dodik even jokingly offered him the job of adviser in his office. Meyer is scheduled to meet political leaders in the FB-H [B- H Federation], after which he will go to Macedonia.
What Is the Obstacle to B-H's Stability?
"Foreign pressure is the biggest obstacle to Bosnia- Herzegovina's stability. Britain, the United States, and others have thoughts about what Bosnia-Herzegovina should look like, but this often bears no resemblance to the views of B-H politicians and people. The easiest way to overcome this is to abolish the mandate of the international community, as this would force the politicians to reach an agreement and prevent them from accusing the Americans or the EU for failure. Another way would be that B-H leaders ignore the international elements and agree on their own on the route of this ship, after which they would ask Europe to ensure calm seas for it. In all options, there is no stability for Bosnia-Herzegovina without an agreement reached inside it," Meyer said.
Originally published by Dnevni avaz, Sarajevo, in Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian 19 Jul 08, p 5.
(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring European. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.
Story Source: BBC Monitoring European
By: iStockAnalyst Thursday, July 24, 2008 5:54 AM
Text of report by Bosnian wide-circulation privately-owned daily Dnevni avaz, on 19 July
[Interview with Steven Meyer, professor at Washington National Defense University and former CIA specialist for Balkans, by Sanja Skuletic; place and date not given: "Next Two Years Most Critical for B-H" -- first two paragraphs are Dnevni Avaz introduction]
Next two years will be a critical period for Bosnia-Herzegovina and its future. Coming up are the most difficult issues for this country, which will either make it become a legitimate country or lead it to peaceful split, Steven Meyer, former CIA specialist for the Balkans and current professor at Washington's National Defence University, said in an interview for Dnevni Avaz. Meyer is currently on a visit to Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Frozen State
Speaking about political stability, he, in a nutshell, vividly described the situation in our region as frozen, emphasizing that our country served as an example of this frozenness. On the other hand, he pointed out that it was not possible at least not to make a fleeting mention of the military and security situation, asserting that "there is almost no chance that we will ever again see a military conflict in this area, especially not in the degree that we saw in the 1990s."
[Skuletic] What in your opinion are the preconditions for a stable future of Bosnia-Herzegovina?
[Meyer] A stable future primarily depends on economic stability and Bosnia-Herzegovina's strength to deal with the negative effects of the Stabilization and Association Agreement [SAA]. Ranked second is the necessary constitutional reform, which can be successful only if it is the product of an agreement of B-H leaders, and not a ready- made solution of the United States or Europe. If these issues are not resolved successfully, I think that Bosnia-Herzegovina has little hope to survive as a country.
[Skuletic] Do you think that Bosnia-Herzegovina, with the current ruling political structures, can overcome these difficult issues?
[Meyer] You will get me into trouble... No, I think that it cannot... However, if the international community's pressure were to go away, then perhaps Bosnia-Herzegovina's political leaders might be forced to take responsibility and find a better way to overcome these problems. Otherwise, I am a pessimist. If the current political leadership stays where it is today, and the influence of international elements stays at today's high level, then I think that it is very likely that Bosnia-Herzegovina will not exist in five years.
Bosnian Mafia
[Skuletic] Do you think that this would be allowed by, first of all, your own country, the United States?
[Meyer] Bosnia-Herzegovina is not so important for the United States. There is a small group -- the so-called "Bosnian mafia" -- in the US Government that would be disappointed, but this would not turn into a policy issue for the president. We have so many serious problems: the US foreign policy is in chaos, we cannot fix Iraq, Afghanistan is a problem, and so is Iran... This part of the world is not so important for the United States and its administration.
[Skuletic] On the other hand, the same could not be said about Europe...
[Meyer] The reaction to Bosnia-Herzegovina's split would certainly be serious in Europe. They would see it as their failure. This possibly might be acceptable to Europe if it were to unfold in a peaceful way.
[Box] Dodik Offered Him a Job
Meyer met B-H Prime Minister Nikola Spiric, Presidency Member Nebojsa Radmanovic, and RS [Serb Republic] Prime Minister Milorad Dodik. Dodik even jokingly offered him the job of adviser in his office. Meyer is scheduled to meet political leaders in the FB-H [B- H Federation], after which he will go to Macedonia.
What Is the Obstacle to B-H's Stability?
"Foreign pressure is the biggest obstacle to Bosnia- Herzegovina's stability. Britain, the United States, and others have thoughts about what Bosnia-Herzegovina should look like, but this often bears no resemblance to the views of B-H politicians and people. The easiest way to overcome this is to abolish the mandate of the international community, as this would force the politicians to reach an agreement and prevent them from accusing the Americans or the EU for failure. Another way would be that B-H leaders ignore the international elements and agree on their own on the route of this ship, after which they would ask Europe to ensure calm seas for it. In all options, there is no stability for Bosnia-Herzegovina without an agreement reached inside it," Meyer said.
Originally published by Dnevni avaz, Sarajevo, in Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian 19 Jul 08, p 5.
(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring European. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.
Story Source: BBC Monitoring European