Post by engers on Nov 16, 2007 5:58:24 GMT -5
As Kosovo prepares for parliamentary elections tomorrow, expectations are high that it will declare independence from Serbia
Mark Tran
Friday November 16, 2007
Guardian Unlimited
Whatever their differences, the main parties in tomorrow's parliamentary elections in Kosovo strongly agree on one goal: independence from Serbia.
The elections for the 120-seat legislature and 30 local assemblies are the third since 1999, when a Nato air campaign drove out Serbian troops from the breakaway province. Nato planes effectively sided with the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), which had formed after a decade of repression by the late Serbian leader, Slobodan Milosevic.
The vote is taking place amid expectations that Kosovo, which has been under UN supervision for the past eight years, will declare independence. Status talks have gone nowhere.
The expectation is that Kosovo will formally sever ties with Belgrade in February, after a December 10 deadline for international envoys to report back to the UN on efforts to resolve the dispute over Kosovo's status.
In what will be seen as a wildly optimistic gloss on the impasse, Agim Ceku, the outgoing prime minister and former chief of staff of the KLA, wrote yesterday in the Wall Street Journal that the end of negotiations would create "the atmosphere for a positive and collaborative declaration of independence and prompt recognition the international community".
Belgrade has said it will not use force to retaliate against the population of 2 million people, 90% of whom are Albanians. But it has threatened to make life as difficult as it can for Kosovo through punitive economic measures such as closing the border and stopping goods entering Kosovo.
During the talks under the auspices of Russia, the US and the EU, Belgrade has dangled "more than autonomy and less than independence", a formula based on the Hong Kong model. Under the scheme, Kosovo, like Hong Kong, would run its own economy and have its own legal system, currency and police force, but would remain part of Serbia.
Yet nothing less than independence will satisfy Kosovars. And nothing less would be political suicide for its politicians. As Ceku wrote in the Journal: "After all the suffering of all of the people of Kosovo in the 1990s, we can never have any kind of confederation with Serbia."
In fact, the credibility of Ceku, who is not standing in tomorrow's vote, has been badly tarnished because of his inability to deliver on independence, which had seemed a foregone conclusion at the start of the year.
He is being accused of putting too much faith in the US, which had assured him that independence was a done deal this year until a newly assertive Russia threw a spanner into the works by blocking a UN security council resolution on Kosovo.
The Bush administration still backs independence for Kosovo, but has other more pressing issues - a Middle East peace conference that might or might not take place, Iran's nuclear weapons programme and Iraq. By comparison, Kosovo is a minnow-sized problem that the US probably feels should be left to the Europeans to sort out.
That may well be a logical attitude since Kosovo is in Europe, although the Europeans failed to deal with Bosnia and needed US help. On Kosovo, the EU is split between those such as the UK, who favour independence, and those such as Spain, which has its own separatist problem, who do not.
For the EU, Kosovo is a big problem on its doorstep. The fear is that Kosovars, frustrated at being kept in political limbo, will lash out at the 16,000-strong Nato peace force and other "internationals" that seem increasingly like an occupying power and that destabilisation will spread to the rest of the western Balkans.
In its recent report on European enlargement, the European commission gave a bleak assessment of Kosovo. Corruption was widespread and there was little progress and enforcement on human rights, with the minority Serb population in the north feeling victimised by the Albanian majority.
Belgrade has to take some responsibility for their plight, as it has been putting pressure on the Serbian minority to disengage politically. Joachim Ruecker, a German diplomat who heads the UN interim administration mission in Kosovo, yesterday spoke of his concerns that "undue pressure has been exercised on the voters within the Kosovo Serb community not to participate" in elections.
"Actions by certain Kosovo Serb leaders and statements by officials in Belgrade amounting to such pressure have been documented and are strongly deplored," he said.
Kosovo's Serbs have boycotted local and general elections since 1999, except for a vote in 2001, at the instigation of Belgrade, which was an exercise in mischief making designed to undermine the legitimacy of the Albanian authorities in Kosovo. Ten of the Kosovo parliament's 120 seats are set aside for Serbs, but they remain empty because of a long-running boycott.
The talk among some Albanians in Kosovo is that their small piece of land will become a "Balkan Gaza" if the promise of independence keeps getting snatched away.
The ex-guerrilla commander, Hashim Thaci, and his opposition Democratic party of Kosovo have a narrow lead in the opinion polls. If, as expected, he succeeds Ceku, the demands for independence are likely to grow even more vociferous.
[ftp]http://www.guardian.co.uk/Kosovo/Story/0,,2212182,00.html[/ftp]
Mark Tran
Friday November 16, 2007
Guardian Unlimited
Whatever their differences, the main parties in tomorrow's parliamentary elections in Kosovo strongly agree on one goal: independence from Serbia.
The elections for the 120-seat legislature and 30 local assemblies are the third since 1999, when a Nato air campaign drove out Serbian troops from the breakaway province. Nato planes effectively sided with the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), which had formed after a decade of repression by the late Serbian leader, Slobodan Milosevic.
The vote is taking place amid expectations that Kosovo, which has been under UN supervision for the past eight years, will declare independence. Status talks have gone nowhere.
The expectation is that Kosovo will formally sever ties with Belgrade in February, after a December 10 deadline for international envoys to report back to the UN on efforts to resolve the dispute over Kosovo's status.
In what will be seen as a wildly optimistic gloss on the impasse, Agim Ceku, the outgoing prime minister and former chief of staff of the KLA, wrote yesterday in the Wall Street Journal that the end of negotiations would create "the atmosphere for a positive and collaborative declaration of independence and prompt recognition the international community".
Belgrade has said it will not use force to retaliate against the population of 2 million people, 90% of whom are Albanians. But it has threatened to make life as difficult as it can for Kosovo through punitive economic measures such as closing the border and stopping goods entering Kosovo.
During the talks under the auspices of Russia, the US and the EU, Belgrade has dangled "more than autonomy and less than independence", a formula based on the Hong Kong model. Under the scheme, Kosovo, like Hong Kong, would run its own economy and have its own legal system, currency and police force, but would remain part of Serbia.
Yet nothing less than independence will satisfy Kosovars. And nothing less would be political suicide for its politicians. As Ceku wrote in the Journal: "After all the suffering of all of the people of Kosovo in the 1990s, we can never have any kind of confederation with Serbia."
In fact, the credibility of Ceku, who is not standing in tomorrow's vote, has been badly tarnished because of his inability to deliver on independence, which had seemed a foregone conclusion at the start of the year.
He is being accused of putting too much faith in the US, which had assured him that independence was a done deal this year until a newly assertive Russia threw a spanner into the works by blocking a UN security council resolution on Kosovo.
The Bush administration still backs independence for Kosovo, but has other more pressing issues - a Middle East peace conference that might or might not take place, Iran's nuclear weapons programme and Iraq. By comparison, Kosovo is a minnow-sized problem that the US probably feels should be left to the Europeans to sort out.
That may well be a logical attitude since Kosovo is in Europe, although the Europeans failed to deal with Bosnia and needed US help. On Kosovo, the EU is split between those such as the UK, who favour independence, and those such as Spain, which has its own separatist problem, who do not.
For the EU, Kosovo is a big problem on its doorstep. The fear is that Kosovars, frustrated at being kept in political limbo, will lash out at the 16,000-strong Nato peace force and other "internationals" that seem increasingly like an occupying power and that destabilisation will spread to the rest of the western Balkans.
In its recent report on European enlargement, the European commission gave a bleak assessment of Kosovo. Corruption was widespread and there was little progress and enforcement on human rights, with the minority Serb population in the north feeling victimised by the Albanian majority.
Belgrade has to take some responsibility for their plight, as it has been putting pressure on the Serbian minority to disengage politically. Joachim Ruecker, a German diplomat who heads the UN interim administration mission in Kosovo, yesterday spoke of his concerns that "undue pressure has been exercised on the voters within the Kosovo Serb community not to participate" in elections.
"Actions by certain Kosovo Serb leaders and statements by officials in Belgrade amounting to such pressure have been documented and are strongly deplored," he said.
Kosovo's Serbs have boycotted local and general elections since 1999, except for a vote in 2001, at the instigation of Belgrade, which was an exercise in mischief making designed to undermine the legitimacy of the Albanian authorities in Kosovo. Ten of the Kosovo parliament's 120 seats are set aside for Serbs, but they remain empty because of a long-running boycott.
The talk among some Albanians in Kosovo is that their small piece of land will become a "Balkan Gaza" if the promise of independence keeps getting snatched away.
The ex-guerrilla commander, Hashim Thaci, and his opposition Democratic party of Kosovo have a narrow lead in the opinion polls. If, as expected, he succeeds Ceku, the demands for independence are likely to grow even more vociferous.
[ftp]http://www.guardian.co.uk/Kosovo/Story/0,,2212182,00.html[/ftp]