Post by rex362 on Feb 15, 2008 12:42:58 GMT -5
Russia barks at Kosovo but cannot bite
By Vanessa Mock
15-02-2008
Click to listen to the report
Russia has roared with anger at Kosovo's move to declare independence, warning that it will trigger a fierce response in Moscow. But however loud its bark, it is powerless to stop the rapidly unfolding chain of events in Serbia's southern province.
While Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci is preparing for the imminent declaration of independence, the Kremlin seeks to raise the stakes by announcing that it will change its policy towards breakaway regions in Georgia.
It has signalled it may recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia, triggering a regional crisis. The move would be in line with earlier warnings by President Putin, who has argued that granting independence to Kosovo would re-ignite other frozen conflicts.
Ethnic Albanians with their national flag
Ethnic Albanians
with their national flag (ANP/EPA photo)
Pandora's box
Mr Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told RNW recently that international recognition of Kosovo would cause an "international state of emergency that will jeopardise international and European security. It will open up a Pandora's box."
On Thursday, both Serbia and Russia slammed any declaration of independence as "null and void" and a violation of international law, as they made last-ditch appeals to the UN Security Council.
Mr Peskov said it would undermine the credibility of the UN:
"The UN can't stop Europe... but its reputation will be seriously jeopardised."
Steps to independence
* Kosovo is expected to declare independence this weekend.
* It will be supported by the major EU powers and the US, while Serbia and Russia have vowed never to recognise it.
* Independence closes the chapter on the UN administration that began in 1999 after NATO wrested the mainly ethnic Albanian province from the then Serbian leader Milosevic
* The EU is set to deploy a 2,000-strong team of EU police officers and judicial experts to help Kosovo establish its own civil institutions
Troublemaker
Diplomats have voiced concern that Moscow may retaliate by becoming obstructive both within the UN and other organisations, such as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). One senior OSCE official told RNW,"They can cause a lot of trouble for us and for countries like Ukraine. We're very worried."Russia's stance has infuriated and alarmed the EU.
Javier Solana, the EU's Foreign Policy Chief, told the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov last week that he was "very sad" that Russia has not been more helpful in solving this issue.
"Europe and Russia both want to be global players. We share a continent. But often it's much easier to compete as a global player with Russia than be good neighbours."
Kosovo
A mess for Russia?
Carl Bildt, the former UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, believes that much of the recent noise from Moscow is for domestic consumption ahead of next month's elections. The current Swedish Foreign Minister explained:
"And they want to tell the world that Russia is back. But they do have a point: we have to understand that when Russia is speaking about Kosovo, it's not only that they are trying to create a mess for us." Pointing to deeply-rooted concerns about the break-up of Russia itself, he said:
"They feel we are making a mess for them long-term by advocating policies of breaking up states that ultimately could affect them. That's reflected in what they say about Kosovo."
All talk, no action
Across the Atlantic, many Russia experts take a more sceptical view. "Mr Putin says things all the time and ends up not doing them," says former US defence advisor Bruce Jackson.
"Let's not forget that Russia is comparatively speaking a small economic and military power, with huge problems with its Asian and Islamic borders. Frankly, Europe is the only friend Russia has."
Mr Jackson, the head of Project on Transitional Democracies, a US think-tank, said Moscow realises that its hands are tied to Europe, mainly because it is the main market for Russian oil.
"So I think its behaviour will increasingly be consistent with European standards."
By Vanessa Mock
15-02-2008
Click to listen to the report
Russia has roared with anger at Kosovo's move to declare independence, warning that it will trigger a fierce response in Moscow. But however loud its bark, it is powerless to stop the rapidly unfolding chain of events in Serbia's southern province.
While Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci is preparing for the imminent declaration of independence, the Kremlin seeks to raise the stakes by announcing that it will change its policy towards breakaway regions in Georgia.
It has signalled it may recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia, triggering a regional crisis. The move would be in line with earlier warnings by President Putin, who has argued that granting independence to Kosovo would re-ignite other frozen conflicts.
Ethnic Albanians with their national flag
Ethnic Albanians
with their national flag (ANP/EPA photo)
Pandora's box
Mr Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told RNW recently that international recognition of Kosovo would cause an "international state of emergency that will jeopardise international and European security. It will open up a Pandora's box."
On Thursday, both Serbia and Russia slammed any declaration of independence as "null and void" and a violation of international law, as they made last-ditch appeals to the UN Security Council.
Mr Peskov said it would undermine the credibility of the UN:
"The UN can't stop Europe... but its reputation will be seriously jeopardised."
Steps to independence
* Kosovo is expected to declare independence this weekend.
* It will be supported by the major EU powers and the US, while Serbia and Russia have vowed never to recognise it.
* Independence closes the chapter on the UN administration that began in 1999 after NATO wrested the mainly ethnic Albanian province from the then Serbian leader Milosevic
* The EU is set to deploy a 2,000-strong team of EU police officers and judicial experts to help Kosovo establish its own civil institutions
Troublemaker
Diplomats have voiced concern that Moscow may retaliate by becoming obstructive both within the UN and other organisations, such as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). One senior OSCE official told RNW,"They can cause a lot of trouble for us and for countries like Ukraine. We're very worried."Russia's stance has infuriated and alarmed the EU.
Javier Solana, the EU's Foreign Policy Chief, told the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov last week that he was "very sad" that Russia has not been more helpful in solving this issue.
"Europe and Russia both want to be global players. We share a continent. But often it's much easier to compete as a global player with Russia than be good neighbours."
Kosovo
A mess for Russia?
Carl Bildt, the former UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, believes that much of the recent noise from Moscow is for domestic consumption ahead of next month's elections. The current Swedish Foreign Minister explained:
"And they want to tell the world that Russia is back. But they do have a point: we have to understand that when Russia is speaking about Kosovo, it's not only that they are trying to create a mess for us." Pointing to deeply-rooted concerns about the break-up of Russia itself, he said:
"They feel we are making a mess for them long-term by advocating policies of breaking up states that ultimately could affect them. That's reflected in what they say about Kosovo."
All talk, no action
Across the Atlantic, many Russia experts take a more sceptical view. "Mr Putin says things all the time and ends up not doing them," says former US defence advisor Bruce Jackson.
"Let's not forget that Russia is comparatively speaking a small economic and military power, with huge problems with its Asian and Islamic borders. Frankly, Europe is the only friend Russia has."
Mr Jackson, the head of Project on Transitional Democracies, a US think-tank, said Moscow realises that its hands are tied to Europe, mainly because it is the main market for Russian oil.
"So I think its behaviour will increasingly be consistent with European standards."