Post by Bozur on Apr 10, 2005 4:19:48 GMT -5
Fear of USA binds Turkey, Russia
Historic rivals appear headed for closer political ties that could harm US interests in the region
By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition
These days, half-a-century-long cold war enemies Turkey and Russia are on a silent course toward rapprochement. And the reason is Turkey’s half-a-century-long Cold War ally, the United States.
At the height of their powers, the Ottoman Empire and Czarist Russia were locked in a struggle for regional supremacy. Initially, the two were on opposite sides of World War I, and after that, Turkey was NATO’s easternmost front, defending the Western alliance’s border against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
But having spent centuries vying for influence in the Balkans, Crimea and the Caucasus, historic rivals Turkey and Russia, major economic partners in recent years, are also heading for their closest ever political relationship.
All that does not go unnoticed in Washington. Leading analysts close to President George W. Bush’s administration see the main reason behind this political rapprochement as common Americano-phobia in Turkey and Russia. They warn that a closer strategic relationship between Ankara and Moscow may hurt US interests in the region of the two emerging allies.
“Turks now associate Iraq with chaos and damage to their national interests, while the United States hails Iraq as a test case for spreading democracy and freedom in the world. This has led many Turks to associate American democracy and reform initiatives in the Middle East with an expansionist policy that will weaken Turkey, but is cloaked in the rhetoric of freedom and justice,” said Zeyno Baran, director of international and security programs at the Nixon Center, a conservative think tank in Washington.
“Turks fear the Kurds in Iraq may eventually establish an independent state that would also appeal to Turkey’s own Kurds living in the border areas. The fact that the oil-rich city of Kirkuk is gradually coming under Kurdish control and the Turkmen living in Kirkuk are being discriminated against further causes suspicion and mistrust toward the United States,” Baran said. “In fact, today Turkey’s secular military, Islamists, leftists and nationalists — forces that often oppose each other — have united in their common opposition to the United States.”
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin feels cornered by the United States after the West’s strong support brought victory to Ukraine’s new pro-Western leader Viktor Yuschenko in recent elections there. Despised by the United States for backtracking on democracy and efforts at “renationalizing” Russia’s energy resources, Putin believes he will be the next man in a line of “could be replaced leaders” if Washington ever finds an opportunity. Russia is also concerned for the future of its own territorial integrity.
“The United States needs to understand that a deep psychological issue is at play, and this is why Turkey has been moving closer to Russia. The United States should not ignore the psychological hang-ups of former empires like Turkey and Russia, which still suffer from the 19th and 20th century views of strategic factors and do not share Bush’s vision of advancing democratic change in pursuit of freedom,” Baran said.
“Turkey and Russia still pine over lost lands and fear being surrounded by a West hostile to their interests. Both oscillate between feelings of insecurity about their waning influence in global politics, and a sense of strategic indispensability in Eurasia.”
Baran said Russia and Turkey had joined hands in trying to keep the United States out of the Black Sea. “The last thing [Turkey and Russia] want to see is the United States also enter the Black Sea region, which Turkey and Russia feel is their special zone of influence where they are the major powers.”
Democratic alliances
“Many in Turkey were skeptical of the Georgian and Ukrainian revolutions, which they believe were managed by the United States. They fear that under the rubric of ‘democratic alliance,’ the United States is creating an anti-Russian alliance in the Black Sea region, which will lead to instability and undermine Turkey’s security there. Second, when the United States talks about democracy in the Black Sea region, Turkey hears American naval presence. Turkey is strongly opposed to any foreign military presence in the Black Sea, which it fears will undermine the Treaty of Montreaux of 1923, which afforded Turkey rights to regulate the Turkish straits,” Baran said.
Bruce Jackson, president of the Project on Transitional Democracies, a Washington-based think tank mainly focusing on former Soviet republics, has also voiced concern over the political rapprochement between Russia and Turkey.
“Perhaps most worrying are reports of Turkish-Russian discussions of a coordinated policy in the Black Sea region, which would inevitably be conducted at the expense of smaller, pro-European democracies. The motivation for Turkey’s negative regional behavior appears to be a classic case of Great Power insecurity and a fear that Turkey will lose its distinct identity in the economic and demographic uncertainty of modern Europe,” Jackson said.
Jackson urges Washington to confront both Russia and Turkey. “Whatever we hope to accomplish in the Black Sea region will be impossible without the willingness to confront Russia where its conduct goes beyond the acceptable. But we must also communicate frankly to Turkey that we expect our friends and allies to support other democratic states and to work for the peaceful resolution of conflicts in their region.”
US officials generally decline to publicly comment on the Turkish-Russian relationship negatively, and Turkish and Russian officials deny that their countries’ closer ties are aimed at confronting US interests in the region.
But the Turkish-Russian political dialogue has reached unprecedented levels in the past several months, with Putin visiting Ankara in December and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan returning the visit only a month later. Putin’s December 5-6 trip was the first ever by a Russian president to Turkey (the highest previous official from Moscow to visit was Nikolai Podgorny, the purely nominal head of the Soviet state in 1973). During both visits, Putin and Erdogan voiced concern over Iraq and called on the United Nations to assume a larger role in world politics. The messages were seen as clear criticism of Washington.
In fact the dynamic behind the Turkish-Russian detente is more financial than political. Bilateral trade exceeded $10 billion last year, making Russia Turkey’s second-biggest commercial partner after Germany. Turkey and Russia now aim at an annual $25 billion by 2007. The trade figure excludes shuttle trade from Istanbul to Moscow, estimated at an annual $3-5 billion. Nearly 2 million Russian tourists visited Turkey in 2004, the largest number of any country, bar Germany. Turkish investments in Russia total some $2 billion. Russian weapons suppliers are testing the waters to make a challenging entrance into the Turkish defense market. Also, Russia is Turkey’s top natural gas supplier.
A recently built pipeline carries Russian natural gas beneath the Black Sea to Turkey, which relies on Russia for some two-thirds of its gas. Russia’s energy giant Gazprom is interested in projects for gas storage and more extensive distribution in Turkey.
The Nixon Center’s Baran pointed to what she called Russia’s efforts to create an energy monopoly in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. “The United States needs to be aware that Gazprom wants to control the gas markets of Georgia, Turkey, and Ukraine to form a strategic ring around the Black Sea, which would then be under permanent Russian energy control,” she said.
www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/news/content.asp?aid=54029
Historic rivals appear headed for closer political ties that could harm US interests in the region
By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition
These days, half-a-century-long cold war enemies Turkey and Russia are on a silent course toward rapprochement. And the reason is Turkey’s half-a-century-long Cold War ally, the United States.
At the height of their powers, the Ottoman Empire and Czarist Russia were locked in a struggle for regional supremacy. Initially, the two were on opposite sides of World War I, and after that, Turkey was NATO’s easternmost front, defending the Western alliance’s border against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
But having spent centuries vying for influence in the Balkans, Crimea and the Caucasus, historic rivals Turkey and Russia, major economic partners in recent years, are also heading for their closest ever political relationship.
All that does not go unnoticed in Washington. Leading analysts close to President George W. Bush’s administration see the main reason behind this political rapprochement as common Americano-phobia in Turkey and Russia. They warn that a closer strategic relationship between Ankara and Moscow may hurt US interests in the region of the two emerging allies.
“Turks now associate Iraq with chaos and damage to their national interests, while the United States hails Iraq as a test case for spreading democracy and freedom in the world. This has led many Turks to associate American democracy and reform initiatives in the Middle East with an expansionist policy that will weaken Turkey, but is cloaked in the rhetoric of freedom and justice,” said Zeyno Baran, director of international and security programs at the Nixon Center, a conservative think tank in Washington.
“Turks fear the Kurds in Iraq may eventually establish an independent state that would also appeal to Turkey’s own Kurds living in the border areas. The fact that the oil-rich city of Kirkuk is gradually coming under Kurdish control and the Turkmen living in Kirkuk are being discriminated against further causes suspicion and mistrust toward the United States,” Baran said. “In fact, today Turkey’s secular military, Islamists, leftists and nationalists — forces that often oppose each other — have united in their common opposition to the United States.”
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin feels cornered by the United States after the West’s strong support brought victory to Ukraine’s new pro-Western leader Viktor Yuschenko in recent elections there. Despised by the United States for backtracking on democracy and efforts at “renationalizing” Russia’s energy resources, Putin believes he will be the next man in a line of “could be replaced leaders” if Washington ever finds an opportunity. Russia is also concerned for the future of its own territorial integrity.
“The United States needs to understand that a deep psychological issue is at play, and this is why Turkey has been moving closer to Russia. The United States should not ignore the psychological hang-ups of former empires like Turkey and Russia, which still suffer from the 19th and 20th century views of strategic factors and do not share Bush’s vision of advancing democratic change in pursuit of freedom,” Baran said.
“Turkey and Russia still pine over lost lands and fear being surrounded by a West hostile to their interests. Both oscillate between feelings of insecurity about their waning influence in global politics, and a sense of strategic indispensability in Eurasia.”
Baran said Russia and Turkey had joined hands in trying to keep the United States out of the Black Sea. “The last thing [Turkey and Russia] want to see is the United States also enter the Black Sea region, which Turkey and Russia feel is their special zone of influence where they are the major powers.”
Democratic alliances
“Many in Turkey were skeptical of the Georgian and Ukrainian revolutions, which they believe were managed by the United States. They fear that under the rubric of ‘democratic alliance,’ the United States is creating an anti-Russian alliance in the Black Sea region, which will lead to instability and undermine Turkey’s security there. Second, when the United States talks about democracy in the Black Sea region, Turkey hears American naval presence. Turkey is strongly opposed to any foreign military presence in the Black Sea, which it fears will undermine the Treaty of Montreaux of 1923, which afforded Turkey rights to regulate the Turkish straits,” Baran said.
Bruce Jackson, president of the Project on Transitional Democracies, a Washington-based think tank mainly focusing on former Soviet republics, has also voiced concern over the political rapprochement between Russia and Turkey.
“Perhaps most worrying are reports of Turkish-Russian discussions of a coordinated policy in the Black Sea region, which would inevitably be conducted at the expense of smaller, pro-European democracies. The motivation for Turkey’s negative regional behavior appears to be a classic case of Great Power insecurity and a fear that Turkey will lose its distinct identity in the economic and demographic uncertainty of modern Europe,” Jackson said.
Jackson urges Washington to confront both Russia and Turkey. “Whatever we hope to accomplish in the Black Sea region will be impossible without the willingness to confront Russia where its conduct goes beyond the acceptable. But we must also communicate frankly to Turkey that we expect our friends and allies to support other democratic states and to work for the peaceful resolution of conflicts in their region.”
US officials generally decline to publicly comment on the Turkish-Russian relationship negatively, and Turkish and Russian officials deny that their countries’ closer ties are aimed at confronting US interests in the region.
But the Turkish-Russian political dialogue has reached unprecedented levels in the past several months, with Putin visiting Ankara in December and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan returning the visit only a month later. Putin’s December 5-6 trip was the first ever by a Russian president to Turkey (the highest previous official from Moscow to visit was Nikolai Podgorny, the purely nominal head of the Soviet state in 1973). During both visits, Putin and Erdogan voiced concern over Iraq and called on the United Nations to assume a larger role in world politics. The messages were seen as clear criticism of Washington.
In fact the dynamic behind the Turkish-Russian detente is more financial than political. Bilateral trade exceeded $10 billion last year, making Russia Turkey’s second-biggest commercial partner after Germany. Turkey and Russia now aim at an annual $25 billion by 2007. The trade figure excludes shuttle trade from Istanbul to Moscow, estimated at an annual $3-5 billion. Nearly 2 million Russian tourists visited Turkey in 2004, the largest number of any country, bar Germany. Turkish investments in Russia total some $2 billion. Russian weapons suppliers are testing the waters to make a challenging entrance into the Turkish defense market. Also, Russia is Turkey’s top natural gas supplier.
A recently built pipeline carries Russian natural gas beneath the Black Sea to Turkey, which relies on Russia for some two-thirds of its gas. Russia’s energy giant Gazprom is interested in projects for gas storage and more extensive distribution in Turkey.
The Nixon Center’s Baran pointed to what she called Russia’s efforts to create an energy monopoly in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. “The United States needs to be aware that Gazprom wants to control the gas markets of Georgia, Turkey, and Ukraine to form a strategic ring around the Black Sea, which would then be under permanent Russian energy control,” she said.
www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/news/content.asp?aid=54029