Post by Bozur on Feb 27, 2005 4:25:05 GMT -5
Article Published: Tuesday, February 15, 2005
- 2:15:23 AM EST
Iraq's democracy takes form
Iraqi's Shiite alliance won the first truly democratic election in Iraq's 85-year history, but the Shiites are not celebrating in the manner traditional to victors in democracies. The alliance's joy is dampened because victory, which was inevitable, did not prove decisive enough to assure Shiites total control of the fledgling democracy, which would have enabled them to write the country's first constitution to their specifications. The Shiites are likely to find democracy messy and argumentative, which could be the best thing for Iraq.
The worst-case scenario coming out of the elections was a clear victory for religious Shiites set on setting up a theocracy akin to that in neighboring Iran. The Shiite clerics and their supporters are in a position of strength but even when secular Shiites are included the majority religious group fell far short of the two-thirds majority needed in the new parliament to rule unilaterally. The Shiites will have to forge alliances within and without their religious group, and in doing so they will have to compromise.
The Shiite majority was watered down because of a strong performance in the north by the two main Kurdish parties and an impressive secular turnout around Baghdad and Basra. Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, will control more seats than any other individual, and while he is a Shiite, he is secular. Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani is shaping up as a powerful king-maker and it would indeed be cause for celebration if the Kurds, victimized by Saddam Hussein and sold out by Washington after the first Gulf War, ended up as important players in the new Iraqi government.
The Iraqi insurgency, fueled by disaffected Sunnis and al-Qaida forces who infiltrated the country during the course of the war, isn't going to end, however, and it isn't clear how the election results will affect the 150,000 American troops stated in Iraq. It does not appear that civil war is on the horizon, but with the government fractured among parties and among factions within parties, troops may be needed to resolve disputes and keeping them from overheating. American troops must stay for the immediate future but they should be gradually replaced with United Nations troops in the long run.
With all of its awkward alliances, such as one between Sunnis and secular Shiites, and fringe parties, including the Iraqi Communist Party of all things, the Iraqi parliament is so fractured and potentially quarrelsome it recalls Israel's legislative body. Governments come and go in Israel, where politics is played with bare knuckles, but disputes, however ugly, are settled in the Knesset, not in the streets. That is something for Iraq to emulate as it tries its hand at democracy.