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Post by radovic on Nov 14, 2007 12:20:45 GMT -5
"There won't be another Bosnian war" 14 November 2007 | 15:10 | Source: Beta SARAJEVO -- ICG's James Lyon says that although the situation in Bosnia is serious, it will not lead to a new war.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) analyst told Sarajevo daily Dnevni Avaz that the international community "has invested too much in Bosnia to let all that effort go to waste."
According to him, the conflict between the Republic of Srpska premier Milorad Dodik and High Representative Miroslav Lajèak will end with "Dodik getting the short end of the stick."
Lyon told the newspaper Lajèak had the backing of the West, while Russia does not favor worsening of the situation in Bosnia, "despite support from Moscow that Dodik occasionally enjoys."
He added that "there are those in the RS who wish for its secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina in the long term."
"But, the international community will increase its efforts and pressure on those who do not wish to see agreement and compromise. This means that not only Serb politicians will feel the consequences," Lyon said.
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Post by radovic on Nov 14, 2007 12:21:38 GMT -5
This is good news. But the ICG has failed at all of it's goals and most of it's predictions of what will happen have not materialized.
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Post by Illyrian_Bosniak on Nov 14, 2007 19:19:57 GMT -5
bb..bbb...buuu...but I wanted a war? ....when else will we get our chance da se osvetimo? Aha I see, our revenge will be you working for us for minimum salaries. You will be peasents and we your over lords, just as it used to be ..Bosna, Bog i kraljica Teuta
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 14, 2007 22:47:34 GMT -5
^ Dude can you calm down a little?
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Post by zgembo on Nov 16, 2007 3:55:30 GMT -5
This is not news, but the opinion of another foreigner that got emotionally involved in the Balkans and now sees the situations as black-and-white... ICG predictions have been pretty bad recently, although I am not saying this one is
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Post by amoureux24 on Nov 16, 2007 18:11:01 GMT -5
There can't be another war in Bosnia!
Both sides in Bosnia want to enter EU membership and economically get improved.
So they'd better sit down and make an agreement nicely on what they want to do in the future!
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 17, 2007 0:32:39 GMT -5
^ True say.
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Post by radovic on Nov 17, 2007 22:07:47 GMT -5
There can't be another war in Bosnia! Both sides in Bosnia want to enter EU membership and economically get improved. So they'd better sit down and make an agreement nicely on what they want to do in the future! Well then. May be the EU should do what it with Serbia and Croatia. For both it decreased standards regarding the hague. I see no reason to do this with the standard the EU placed on police reform. Dodik and Sijaldzic reached an agreement and sicne they did the EU should view it as a breakview and tell Lajcak to withdraw his veto.
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Post by theblackswans on Nov 17, 2007 22:30:22 GMT -5
I don't think Dodic is as bad as a lot of people in the west believe. He is a populist who changes he views based upon the views in RS. He is also getting encouragement from Belgrade and Russia. What the serbs in the RS need to realize is they are pawns once again being used in a game of chess. No one in Russia or Belgrade would lose any sleep in RS fell in reality, it is no different than the RSK and Knin. If RS wants to survive it needs to tie it's future to Sarajevo and BiH. Siljadzic is pressing the issue because he sees support for abolishment and that is his strength with his people. Not everyone agrees that RS needs to go, but a lot of strong supporters in the west have no love lost for the genocidal rs, but in the end are practical about it, in a very cynical cold way. The only way forward is thru reform. In an all or nothing win or lose game of poker serbs lose it all.
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Post by radovic on Nov 17, 2007 23:24:11 GMT -5
I don't think Dodic is as bad as a lot of people in the west believe. He is a populist who changes he views based upon the views in RS. He is also getting encouragement from Belgrade and Russia. What the serbs in the RS need to realize is they are pawns once again being used in a game of chess. No one in Russia or Belgrade would lose any sleep in RS fell in reality, it is no different than the RSK and Knin. If RS wants to survive it needs to tie it's future to Sarajevo and BiH. Siljadzic is pressing the issue because he sees support for abolishment and that is his strength with his people. Not everyone agrees that RS needs to go, but a lot of strong supporters in the west have no love lost for the genocidal rs, but in the end are practical about it, in a very cynical cold way. The only way forward is thru reform. In an all or nothing win or lose game of poker serbs lose it all. The west is against RS abolishment. They want the powers of the entities to be decreased. Dodik is a populist. The example of the changes in voting measures shows this. Last year during the April reforms he supported those same measures and now with those reforms cancelled he's against them. If Dodik wasn;t a poopulist and had an actual coherent agenda he would have done the following: "Say he supports those reforms because they mean that April Reforms will be accepted." As soon as Dodik said something like that he would gain political points since it would cause problems for Sijaldzic since he was against the April Reforms and it would seem like a major broken promise if he were to seem to support them now.
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Post by amoureux24 on Nov 18, 2007 6:22:50 GMT -5
I noticed that someone is gaining those points you mentioned. It is nothing to do with the politics, it is more about themselves.
What ever politic rule comes or what ever country is created in Bosnia, I know one thing Bosnians will still obey the rules and want prosperity.
We have a problem having criminals in power.
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Post by viktor1 on Nov 18, 2007 6:25:58 GMT -5
Hmm....I'm not sureeee
Everything can happen...!
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Post by zgembo on Nov 19, 2007 12:54:25 GMT -5
No one in Russia or Belgrade would lose any sleep in RS fell in reality, it is no different than the RSK and Knin. If RS wants to survive it needs to tie it's future to Sarajevo and BiH. Yes, because Sarajevo is more supportive of RS' survival than Belgrade.
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Post by theblackswans on Nov 19, 2007 23:08:10 GMT -5
No, but if RS is to survive they have to accept some realities...
1) Bosnia's current borders cannot and will not be changed.
2) Sarajevo is the capital of Bosnia
3) certain aspects of Dayton agreement need to be changed.
4) A stronger Bosnia state benefits the Serbs in RS, not weakens them.
How ironic is it that the serbian symbol worn by the perpetrators of the Srebrenica genocide, are the same symbols worn by the cetniks who guard and walk the hallowed ground of the memorial of Poticari? It is horrifying to see it in person. It is like a guard in a Nazi uniform guarding Auschwitz.
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Post by zgembo on Nov 20, 2007 13:28:38 GMT -5
No, but if RS is to survive they have to accept some realities... 1) Bosnia's current borders cannot and will not be changed. 2) Sarajevo is the capital of Bosnia 3) certain aspects of Dayton agreement need to be changed. 4) A stronger Bosnia state benefits the Serbs in RS, not weakens them. And who exactly threatens the survival of RS? You see, you are not really stating anything original other than rehashing nationalistic demands of Muslims in Bosnia which are really 15 years old. RS's existence is guaranteed by Dayton, Bosnia's functionality has never existed thereby putting in doubt its long-term ability to survive. If Bosnia is to survive, Muslims needs to accept the two following facts: 1. RS was recognized by Dayton. In return for Serbs accepting Bosnia's borders and Sarajevo as the capital, Bosniaks recognized the existence of RS. Disturbing this essential compromise disturbs the fragile peace in Bosnia. 2. Bosnia cannot be made any stronger (i.e. centralized) while it is run by nationalistic politicians. A more centralized state would be abused to the detriment of smaller nations by nationalistic majority nation politicians. Again, the peace and stability of Bosnia is threatened.
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Post by radovic on Nov 20, 2007 13:55:08 GMT -5
No, but if RS is to survive they have to accept some realities... 1) Bosnia's current borders cannot and will not be changed. 2) Sarajevo is the capital of Bosnia 3) certain aspects of Dayton agreement need to be changed. 4) A stronger Bosnia state benefits the Serbs in RS, not weakens them. 1. RS survival implies bosnia's borders will not be changed. RS abolishment would cause Serbs to call for changes in borders. 2. RS never challenged Sarajevo as the capital of Bosnia. So this point is pointless. 3. This is true. The RS supported the April Reforms (also supported by EU and U.S.), which the Bosniaks didn't. Dodik himself has said that parts of Dayton need to be changed. The thing is Serbs and bosniaks can't agree what needs to be changed. Not only that but given that since 1995 some powers the entity had have either been "harmonized" or given to the central authorities Dayton has already been changed. 4. that's open to debate? May be in some spheres yes, but not in all. Like Mapko said:
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