Anthologic
Amicus
"Lord of all Reality"
Ha!
Posts: 1,237
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Post by Anthologic on Oct 30, 2007 3:14:06 GMT -5
This one will probably be dominated by myself and AAdmin.
Anyways, as far as catching stocks or stock options cheap, that would be before a stock split is announced.
With Apple (AAPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM) both approaching $200 per share, I would assume they are going to have a stock split in the coming 6 months.
Good time to buy, better time to buy options (that knowledge in part thanks to AAdmin).
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Oct 30, 2007 11:34:59 GMT -5
good assessment
outside of AAPl and RIMM here are some other stocks that have had stock splits in the past several years (some multiple stock splits like RIMM had) and which are also solid companies just like AAPL and RIMM. (next to price I will put immediate assessment regarding near term stock price tendency according to tech indicators from optionexpress.com)(last 30day option trading total - optionsclearing.com)(tradetrek.com - short term 'comment')
01) AAPL (186.76)(~90% for cont.uptrend)(64%calls)(up-low volume!!(PIR)) 02) CAM (97.15)(~90% for cont.uptrend)(55%calls)(down-norm.vol.?) 03) CTRP (54.64)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(68%calls)(mod.overbough(PIR)!) 04) CROX (73.03)(~60% for cont.uptrend)(60%calls)(up-norm.volume?) 05) CMI (119.09)(~60% for cont.uptrend)(63%calls)(down-high volume) 06) FTI (61.40)(~90% for cont.uptrend)(58%calls)(down-high volume) 07) GD (90.42)(~60% for cont.uptrend)(71%calls)(down-norm.vol.?) 08) GME (58.10)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(74%calls)(down-norm.vol.?) 09) GES (50.03)(~60% for cont.uptrend)(60%calls)(down-low volume(PIR)!!) 10) GRMN (121.65)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(66%calls)(down-norm.vol.?) 11) JEC (87.00)(~90% for cont.uptrend)(62%calls)(down-norm.vol.?) 12) LFC (99.75)(~90% for cont.uptrend)(59%calls)(down-low volume(PIR)!!) 13) OII (73.39)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(73%calls)(down-norm.volume?) 14) MON (93.99)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(54%calls)(slight.overbought(PIR)!) 15) NOV (71.98)(~60% for cont.uptrend)(69%calls)(down-nrm.volume?) 16) PCP (149.06)(~60% for cont.uptrend)(66%calls)(dwn-low volume(PIR)!!) 17) PCU (138.41)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(58%calls)(dwn-nrm.volume?) 18) POT (119.98)(~90% for cont.uptrend)(70%calls)(down-nrm.volume?) 19) RIMM (121.52)(~80% for cont.uptrend)(61%calls)(up-norm.volume?)
note: low volume in effect means possible imminent reversal (PIR) might be at hand (thus if it is going down with low volume reversal would mean going up and if it is going up with increased volume such development would give more substance to such reversal).
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Oct 30, 2007 15:06:23 GMT -5
To clarify I would personally prefer playing call options on a solid stock that has just announced a stock split within 30-60 days left (as such stocks could also have an additional factor fueling their short term growth and that is the SS announcement itself) have another fuel. If such stock moved within a month time span 10% you could see your opinion value triple or more (of course buying it when it makes a minor pullback would be a good idea also within this time frame). biz.yahoo.com/c/s.htmlLets look at some. some of the solid uptrending stocks splitting in end of Nov Chart- Dominion Resources Inc. (D), appears a buy at 87. --It financial strength (1-10) is around 5-6. --It is uptrending (possible target for the end of the month is 100+ --Noticeable gradual increase in calls recently (53%calls one month ago to 76% calls today) --Tech. Indicators show ranging uptrend (will likely drop a bit unless institutions upload more shares) --Tradetrek shows cont. short term (daily) uptrend --Negative: Financial Strength not ideal but still interesting --Stock Split is Due Nov 19 chart- IDEXX Laboratories Inc. (IDXX), appears a buy now at 119. --It financial strength (1-10) is around 6-7. --It is uptrending (possible target for the end of the month is 130+ --Noticeable increase in calls recently --Tech. Indicators showing cont.uptrend (~60-70% chance) --Tradetrek shows cont. short term (daily) uptrend --Negative: Small trading range (I would not play it cause of this) --Stock Split is Due Nov 26 some of the solid uptrending stocks splitting in Dec chart- Kennametal Inc. (KMT), appears a buy at 83. --It financial strength (1-10) is around 8-9. --It is uptrending (within range, expect a drop to at least 83 1st) --Highly noticeable increase in calls recently (91%calls for last week) --Tech. Indicators showing reversal downwards (~60% chance) --Tradetrek shows cont. short term (daily) downtrend --Negative: Medium trading range (I would not play it cause of this) --Stock Split is Due Dec 19 when evaluating financial strength I used following sites wwws.ameritrade.com/www.valueprime.com/nasdaq.com - guruanalysiswww.tradetrek.com
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Anthologic
Amicus
"Lord of all Reality"
Ha!
Posts: 1,237
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Post by Anthologic on Nov 8, 2007 1:34:15 GMT -5
As far as those PIR's go, if a stock is low on volume and is downtrending, it would drop like a rock once the volume goes up again?
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 8, 2007 12:04:45 GMT -5
" As far as those PIR's go, if a stock is low on volume and is downtrending, it would drop like a rock once the volume goes up again? "
Let me see if I understand this question. Stock is down trending on a low volume and all of a sudden negative volume (more sellers then buyers) increases from low volume to high volume. (This would also express itself in a much higher percentage of puts versus calls).
Would this make the stock drop even more and faster? Yes it would as this would would provide fuel for the move that would move this stock further down. More volume = more fuel. If the increase is of radical nature then some news could be around the corner (same with a sudden substantial increase of "Open Interest" for a particular stock among option traders).
Just to make sure you understand bellow is my explanation of PIR.
By PIR I call possible imminent reversal. There is two scenarios. 1) If a stock is down trending and trading volume become low within this downtrend that could signal a PIR (especially if low volume continues for say several days).
2) If a stock is up trending and trading volume become low within this up trend that could signal a PIR (especially if low volume resumes for say several days).
PS: Comparison can be made that a trend is a direction a given car is heading in and volume is fuel. If fuel is not sufficient then that trend weak weak.
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Anthologic
Amicus
"Lord of all Reality"
Ha!
Posts: 1,237
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Post by Anthologic on Nov 9, 2007 14:15:58 GMT -5
Okay thanks that helps.
Here's another question;
I've been trying looking to play different options with some companies I understand very well (rim, aapl, lulu). I notice that Nov options can be very very cheap, but the same strike price options are much more expensive as the strike date moves farther away. Now I can understand that because it gives you time to play and wait for the stock to go up.
BUT, why would a Dec option $5 out of the money be worth as much as a June 08 option very FAR out of the money?
Are they considering growth in this value, and how do you feel about options like that?
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 9, 2007 22:57:19 GMT -5
I honestly would not not every single thing there is about option trading.
What I have noticed is that the move within a month time span (if it does occur) is far greater in percentage terms then if it occurred over a longer period of time.
Lets compare using optionxpress.com's 'Strategy Scan' with some hypotheticals with QQQQ (50$/share now) and hypothetical 1000$ investment (one is 1 month call, 2nd one is 3 month and 3rd one is for 6 months) .
1) Buy 28 DEC 55 Call @$0.35 (QQQLC) $980 Max Risk $980 Max Gain Unlimited Total Investment $980 P&L $35.00 ($980) $40.00 ($980) $45.00 ($980) $55.00 ($980) $55.35 $0 $60.00 $13,020 $65.00 $27,020 $70.00 $41,020
2) Buy 6 MAR 55 Call @$1.62 (QQQCC) $972 Max Risk $972 Max Gain Unlimited Total Investment $972 P&L $35.00 ($972) $40.00 ($972) $45.00 ($972) $55.00 ($972) $56.62 $0 $60.00 $2,028 $65.00 $5,028 $70.00 $8,028
3) Buy 5 JUN 58 Call @$1.72 (QUEFF) $860 Max Risk $860 Max Gain Unlimited Total Investment $860 P&L $38.00 ($860) $43.00 ($860) $48.00 ($860) $58.00 ($860) $59.72 $0 $63.00 $1,640 $68.00 $4,140 $73.00 $6,640
PS: Notice the difference changing with the different time frame (the further the date the lower the gain which perhaps might help answer your answer).
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Post by Emperor AAdmin on Nov 12, 2007 16:40:59 GMT -5
Just inspected two stocks that just announced recently stocks splits DRYS ( finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DRYS ) ($83.81) -Liquid stock doing a long term uptrend -Doing a short term downtrend (should continue for now) -Will decide soon whether to have a SS FWLT ( finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FWLT ) ($138.86) -Liquid stock doing a long term uptrend -Should reverse a temporary downtrend soon. -SS announced Nov.7 (SS date not announced yet)
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Anthologic
Amicus
"Lord of all Reality"
Ha!
Posts: 1,237
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Post by Anthologic on Nov 12, 2007 22:34:31 GMT -5
Oh jeez, market manipulation at it's best/worst?
RIMM is down huge, yet it has nothing to do with CSCO and the housing market.
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rex362
Senior Moderator
Pellazg
PELASGIANILLYROALBANIAN
Posts: 19,058
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Post by rex362 on Dec 6, 2007 18:31:03 GMT -5
oh my ....you guys been busy here ....
Ive been dormant on playing lately ...check my long stuff out once a week ...
soon ...sooon
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