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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 24, 2010 20:11:22 GMT -5
Global warming 'will give Britain longer, colder winters' as melting sea ice plays havoc with weather patterns*Melting ice will cause blasts of cold air to be funnelled over Britain during winter months Britain will be hit by longer and colder winters in coming years because of global warming, scientists have said. Melting Arctic Sea ice has changed wind patterns in the northern hemisphere - bringing blasts of colder air across the UK. Scientists believe the changes could be why we have been experiencing such a bitterly cold December. In future we are three times as likely to be hit by bitterly cold winter months because of the changing climate. Vladimir Petoukhov, who conducted the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact in Germany, said the disappearing sea ice will have an unpredictable impact on the climate. 'This is not what one would expect. Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far away sea-ice won't bother him could be wrong,' he said. 'There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism. 'Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it.' Rising temperatures in the Arctic - increasing at two to three times the global average - have peeled back the region's floating ice cover by 20 percent over the last three decades. As the Arctic ice cap has melted the heat from the relatively-warm seawater escapes into the colder atmosphere above, creating an area of high pressure. That creates clockwise winds that sweep south over the UK and northern Europe. The study was completed last year - before Britain was hit by a freezing winter and heavy snowfall. Scientists said it was too early to say if the freezing conditions this year and last year were caused by changes in the Arctic. But as the ice continues to melt, Britain will begin to have warmer than average winters - but not for another half a century. Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of physics of the ocean at the Potsdam Institute, said: 'If you look ahead 40 or 50 years, these cold winters will be getting warmer because, even though you are getting an inflow of cold polar air, that air mass is getting warmer because of the greenhouse effect. 'So it's a transient phenomenon. In the long run, global warming wins out.' The paper was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last month. www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1341388/Global-warming-Britain-longer-colder-winters-melting-sea-ice-plays-havoc-weather-patterns.html
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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 24, 2010 20:15:01 GMT -5
Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientistsBy Steve Connor, Science EditorFriday, 24 December 2010 Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic and have warned that long periods of freezing weather are likely to become more frequent in years to come. An analysis of the ice-free regions of the Arctic Ocean has found that the higher temperatures there caused by global warming, which have melted the sea ice in the summer months, have paradoxically increased the chances of colder winters in Britain and the rest of northern Europe. The findings are being assessed by British climate scientists, who have been asked by ministers for advice on whether the past two cold winters are part of a wider pattern of climate change that will cause further damaging disruption to the nation's creaking transport infrastructure. Some climate scientists believe that the dramatic retreat of the Arctic sea ice over the past 30 years has begun to change the wind patterns over much of the northern hemisphere, causing cold, Arctic air to be funnelled over Britain during winter, replacing the mild westerly airstream that normally dominates the UK's weather. The study was carried out in 2009, before last year's harsh winter started to bite, and is all the more prescient because of its prediction that cold, snowy winters will be about three times more frequent in the coming years compared to previous decades. The researchers used computer models to assess the impact of the disappearing Arctic sea ice, particularly in the area of the Barents and Kara seas north of Scandinavia and Russia, which have experienced unprecedented losses of sea ice during summer. Their models found that, as the ice cap over the ocean disappeared, this allowed the heat of the relatively warm seawater to escape into the much colder atmosphere above, creating an area of high pressure surrounded by clockwise-moving winds that sweep down from the polar region over Europe and the British Isles. Vladimir Petoukhov, who carried out the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said the computer simulations showed that the disappearing sea ice is likely to have widespread and unpredictable impacts on the climate of the northern hemisphere. One of the principal predictions of the study was that the warming of the air over the ice-free seas is likely to bring bitterly cold air to Europe during the winter months, Dr Petoukhov said. "This is not what one would expect. Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far away sea-ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," he said. In the paper, submitted in November 2009 but published last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Dr Petoukhov and his colleague Vladimir Semenov write: "Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it." Arctic sea ice has been in retreat over recent decades, with record lows recorded in September 2007. The normal recovery of the sea ice during winter has also been affected, especially in the Barents and Kara seas which have seen significant losses of ice cover over the past decade. Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of physics of the oceans at the Potsdam Institute, said the floating sea ice in winter insulates the relatively warm seawater from the bitterly cold temperatures of the air above it, which can be around -20C or -30C. "The Arctic sea ice is shrinking and at the moment it is at a record low for mid-to-late December, which provides a big heat source for the atmosphere," Professor Rahmstorf said. "The open ocean actually heats the atmosphere above because the ocean in the Arctic is about 0C, and that's much warmer than the atmosphere about it. This is a massive change compared with an ice-covered ocean, where the ice operates like a lid. You don't get that heating from below. "The model simulations show that, when you don't get ice on the Barents and Kara seas, that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there, and, because the airflow is clockwise around the high, it brings cold, polar air right into Europe, which leads to cold conditions here while it is unusually warm elsewhere, especially in the Arctic," he explained. The scientists emphasised that the climate is complex and there were other factors at play. It is, they said, too early to be sure if the past two cold winters are due to the ice-free Arctic. "I want to be cautious, but basically in the past couple of months the sea ice cover has been low and so, according to the model simulations, that would encourage this kind of weather pattern," Professor Rahmstorf said. "The last winter of 2009-10 turned out to be fitting that pattern very well, and perhaps this winter as well, so that is three data points. I would say it's not definite confirmation of the mechanism, but it certainly fits the pattern," he said. The computer model used by the scientists also predicted that, as the ice cover continues to be lost, the weather pattern is likely to shift back into a phase of warmer-than-usual winters. Global warming will also continue to warm the Arctic air mass, Professor Rahmstorf said. "If you look ahead 40 or 50 years, these cold winters will be getting warmer because, even though you are getting an inflow of cold polar air, that air mass is getting warmer because of the greenhouse effect," he said. "So it's a transient phenomenon. In the long run, global warming wins out." www.independent.co.uk/news/science/expect-more-extreme-winters-thanks-to-global-warming-say-scientists-2168418.html
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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 24, 2010 20:17:25 GMT -5
From the newspaper 10 years ago. ;D Snowfalls are now just a thing of the pastBy Charles Onians Monday, 20 March 2000 Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change : snow is starting to disappear from our lives. Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries. The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991. Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties. However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said. The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said. Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said. Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating". Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift. Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important. "We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said. David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold. Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said. The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying". www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 24, 2010 20:44:29 GMT -5
What an Orwellian nightmare we are living. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. How long can this go on you stupid sheeple? Energy costs are skyrocketing as our puppet governments tax us to fight "global warming". It is precisely the goal of all this global warming mania, tax energy output(carbon dioxide)= raise energy costs, which raises the costs of everything, drain people of their money, make them poor until they'll beg the government for bread care, never mind health care. Big brother goverment is coming. Do sheeple deserve serfdom?
Tax tax tax.
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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 24, 2010 20:57:30 GMT -5
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the German media are now in full panic mode. They can no longer get their stories straight. Desperate to stem the flood of doubt now sweeping Germany, as the country is gripped by its harshest December in 100 years, including record snowfalls in Potsdam, the hyper-alarmist PIK and the German media are now throwing all they’ve got to explain away the embarrassing cold. For years they preached endlessly that Germany would be experiencing balmy, southern European-type winters. Snow indeed had been relegated to the history books. The tables have since turned. Everybody had predicted a brutal winterBack in late summer and fall, meteorologists like Piers Corbyn, Joe Bastardi, and other German private forecasters, were all predicting cold winters ahead. Even Russian and Polish scientists had forecast the possibility of the harshest winter in a 1000 years. But the PIK and Met Office climatologists scoffed. The Met Office in England even went so far as to forecast a mild and wet winter, again. So far, Scandinavia, the United Kingdom and Germany have experienced one of the worst Decembers on record, if not the worst. PIK suddenly sees the writing on the wallBy early November even the climate scientists at the notoriously dogmatic PIK eventually recognized the writing on the wall, and so scrambled to fabricate a cartoonish “new study” that suddenly predicted cold winters would be likely for Europe, and claimed it was consistent with global warming. Their models had just uncovered it. The media blitz – conflicting storiesThe heavy snows and extreme cold hit as expected. The public was caught off guard and demanded an explanation. And so the propaganda machinery switched into high gear. FOCUS online, two days ago on Tuesday, had the title Colder Winters Because of Global Warming. Der Spiegel and other major news outlets, along with radio and TV, all joined in spreading the PIK Soviet-like propaganda - all reporting this sudden new discovery by PIK. Focus wrote: " Global warming could bring Europe colder winters. This is the finding of study conducted by climatologists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. In a computer model, they calculated how the disappearance of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas influenced the climate in the northern continental regions. If much ice melts north of Norway and Russia, as it did in the icy winter of 2005/06, then the exposed water releases heat into the Arctic air and thus heats the lower atmospheric layers. As a result, large-scale changes in air currents could occur so that polar winds make their way to Europe and North Asia, whereby the probability of cold winters triples.” Emphasis added. They aren’t sure amd are simply floating this out. The study’s lead author Vladimir Petuchov then adds a line, which I think will become infamous down the road: "Hard winters do not refute global warming, instead they more so confirm it.”So, according to their latest climate models, global warming will lead to colder European winters. The probability of the such is 3 times higher. Now enters Stefan Rahmstorf. No no…stop! Warming leads to warmer colder winters!Meanwhile Stefan Rahmstorf is watching the back door. No matter what happens, they’ll all be able to say “We were right”. Also on Tuesday, the online Die Welt quotes Rahmstorf, also from the PIK, in an article titled: Hard Winter Not a Sign of Climate Change. (Petuchov to the contrary said that it was). " We will certainly have to anticipate milder winters rather than cold ones.” Die Welt then adds: " PIK scientist Prof. Stephan Rahmstorf also points out that the “cold“ winters have gotten warmer.” Stop right here. These guys can’t even get their stories straight! One PIK scientist says we’ll get warmer winters, while the other one says we’ll get colder ones. Well, which is it? Rahmstorf seems to be saying we’ll get colder winters that will be warmer. Oh, now I get it…global warming will now lead to warmer colder winters! It was all recently discovered by their climate modelsDr. Peter Werner, also of the PIK, said on NDR Radio (also on Tuesday) that their climate models just recently uncovered the Kara Sea phenomena, claiming it’s all consistent with man-made climate change. Tuesday was a busy press release day for the alarmists in Potsdam. It also appears to have been a very chaotic one too. ConclusionSo what can we conclude from all this? Jared Olar of Echo-Pilot.com here says it best: " The natural sciences have terms for that kind of hypothesis. ‘Unfalsifiable’ is one of them. ‘Unscientific’ is another. An idea may be true, but if it is incapable of being ‘falsified’ or proven wrong, then whatever else that idea is, it certainly isn’t science.”notrickszone.com/2010/12/23/potsdam-climate-instutute-now-says-to-expect-warmer-colder-winters/
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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 27, 2010 20:26:39 GMT -5
Another claim being thrown around by the propaganda machine(media) is that only Europe is experience below average temperatures, and other places are much above. This is the temperature anamoly as of yesterday. The map was contructed from the data here. wxmaps.org/pix/clim.html
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Post by Babylon Enigma on Dec 27, 2010 20:35:10 GMT -5
Gerald Warner: Weathering the true lies of global warming NewspeakDate: 26 December 2010 By Gerald Warner WEATHER is not climate. Grasp that crucial distinction and you have the essence of the situation, a gnostic insight that will enable you to, er, weather the current cold snap while clinging faithfully to the revealed truth of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The ex cathedra dogma that weather is not climate has the authoritative resonance of similar Orwellian Newspeak maxims such as "War is peace". Beware, above all, of succumbing to a false consciousness, of imagining that a few snowdrifts somehow discredit the metaphysical reality of global warming. Those gifted with climate gnosis arguably have a duty to proclaim their faith by dressing in Bermuda shorts and bikinis, to dispel the illusion of Arctic conditions. This is another area in which the Scottish Parliament, a tabernacle of AGW piety, might profitably impose a ban on people wrapping up in warm clothing, for is that not implicit climate change denial? These are challenging times for climate jihadists. Last week the Met Office was forced to issue a press release stating it "categorically denies forecasting a 'mild winter' ". In fact, in October, its long-range probability map predicted an 80 per cent probability of warmer than average temperatures from November to January in Scotland. It claimed Scotland, along with Northern Ireland, the eastern half of England and Cornwall, would experience temperatures above the 3.7°C average, more than 2°C higher than last winter. Perversely, those are precisely the regions most ravaged by blizzard conditions; but the Met Office now insists that was not a forecast. Apparently, just as weather is not climate, a Met Office map predicting an 80 per cent likelihood of higher temperatures is not a forecast. The Met Office is notoriously zealous in warmist propaganda. Its chairman, Robert Napier, is also chairman of the trustees of the Carbon Disclosure Project and of the Green Fiscal Commission - so, no conflict of interests there. The global warming Mormons of Nasa are so disturbed by public perception that this winter is verging on the chilly across the northern hemisphere that they have produced a map showing areas where they claim alarmingly high temperatures are prevailing, such as the middle of the Arctic Ocean. As sceptics have pointed out, all the hotspots highlighted coincide with places where there are no weather stations, so clearly it is the trusty computers that are generating these high temperatures. Of the fragile construct of global warming mythology there is hardly a domino left standing. Declining polar bear population? Since 1970 the world population of polar bears has 'declined' from 5,000 to 25,000. The notorious 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, claimed up to 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest could be drastically reduced by even a slight decrease in rainfall caused by global warming, replacing trees with tropical grassland. This year a study funded, ironically, by Nasa completely discredited that theory. And who can forget the imminent disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers fiasco? The suggestion of a connection between "man-made" global warming and hurricanes has now been rejected by the scientist who first advanced it, Professor Kerry Emanuel, after further research. Melting ice-caps? When Lewis Pugh tried to paddle a kayak to the "ice-free" North Pole he had to stop 600 miles south of his destination and 100 miles short of where a canoeist had reached a century before. Even the IPCC has been forced to revise its forecasts of rises in sea level dramatically downwards. Global average temperatures reached a peak in 1998 and have been declining since. That, of course, is naïve empiricism, unlikely to deter the warmist fanatics. Gore's propaganda film An Inconvenient Truth contained nine major factual errors; Michael Mann's discredited 'hockey stick' graph is a global joke. So is the Piltdown Institute of Mann-made Global Warming ("Hide the decline!") at the Creative Research Unit, University of East Anglia. The whitewash job done on the jokers there was so blatant as to be counter-productive. Our MSPs - mostly people who give cretinism a bad name - have gone overboard for a world-leading role in climate crusading. How much energy did Scotland's ice-bound wind turbines generate this month? The regulation director at ScottishPower Renewables has stated: "Thirty gigawatts of wind maybe requires 25 GW of backup." Few Scottish windfarms attain even 28 per cent of capacity. Cutting-edge technology, eh? But who cares? Hey, this isn't about science - it's about cash. Specifically, $130bn from Western taxpayers (though the mid-term elections in America mean Joe Public there has firmly said: "Include me out!"). It will take more than a few tax hikes and power cuts to deflect Civic Scotland from embracing the latest leftist fantasy. So, on with the motley! And if you are venturing out, take care to apply plenty of sunblock. news.scotsman.com/comment/Gerald-Warner-Weathering-the-true.6671656.jp
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