Post by radovic on Feb 7, 2008 16:57:35 GMT -5
Djukanovic: Back in the Driving Seat
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Decrease text size07 February 2008 Montenegro’s top politician, Milo Djukanovic, is set to reclaim the post of prime minister, in a bid to speed up privatisation and boost President Vujanovic’s chances of winning re-election.
By Dragoljub Dusko in Podgorica
Milo Djukanovic is preparing to start his fifth term as prime minister following the resignation of Zeljko Sturanovic who is taking time off to receive treatment for lung cancer. His nomination was approved by the leadership of the governing Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and there is little doubt that he will get a vote of confidence in parliament.
Djukanovic’s return to government appears to be linked to his realisation that he was not able to retain full control over national policy from the sidelines.
With Montenegro’s political heavyweight back in the driving seat, it is expected that the government will pursue a more neo-liberal economic policy, further benefiting business circles that have already taken advantage of an earlier round of privatisation.
Djukanovic’s return to head the government comes in spite of a pledge he made when he made way for Sturanovic in late 2006 that he would be staying out of top posts in the state administration.
Since then he has remained influential as the President of the DPS, the dominant partner in the governing coalition.
However, observers do not agree on the reasons that have prompted Djukanovic to return to the helm just a little over a year after he stepped down from the post. Earlier there had been speculation that the governing coalition might pick him as its candidate ahead of the presidential contest on April 6.
When the DPS top brass decided instead to field the incumbent Filip Vujanovic as its candidate, speculation shifted to suggesting that Djukanovic might now aim for the premiership. The rumours have now proved to be accurate.
The opposition has interpreted Djukanovic’s expected return to a top post in the administration as a way of protecting himself from a possible unfavourable outcome of an investigation being conducted by Italian state prosecutors into his alleged involvement in cigarette smuggling in the 1990s.
Djukanovic`s lawyer said on January 18 that the investigation into the case had been completed, and that the prosecutors would be announcing their decision in the next few months. Djukanovic has repeatedly denied the charges.
“On one hand, by not running for president he [Djukanovic] fulfilled his obligation towards the international community, on the other hand he has secured himself diplomatic immunity,” said Predrag Popovic, leader of the opposition People`s Party, referring to the option of Djukanovic’s return to government and to messages from Brussels that the DPS leader should not run for the presidency before he is cleared in the Italian case.
In addition to the argument that Djukanovic might be seeking immunity from a potential prosecution by becoming prime minister again, observers have also suggested that he may have realised that he cannot control the government effectively from the shadows. Although the majority of ministers belong to the DPS, over which Djukanovic has continued to preside, he may have concluded that he needs more direct, hands-on control.
“Djukanovic is coming back as prime minister, as he realized he started to lose control over the big privatization deals, mainly in the energy sector,” Milka Tadic Mijovic of the daily Monitor, and fierce critic of Djukanovic, told Balkan Insight.
This realisation began to dawn on Djukanovic early, following his failure to ensure in 2006 that he would be succeeded in the prime minister’s post by the utterly loyal Igor Luksic, a former finance minister. Sturanovic was reportedly not Djukanovic’s first choice at the time.
Sturanovic’s illness and his need for medical treatment have now provided an opportunity for the neo-liberal faction in the DPS and the business circles closely associated with it, which began to voice their discontent with the government in the second half of last year.
While the neo-liberals favour speedy privatisation, the socio-liberal concept is for a more cautious approach to ensure that the sale of public assets is not tainted by corruption.
The neo-liberals’ distrust of the government seems to have deepened after the authorities, under pressure from their own MPs, cancelled the planned sale of the Pljevlja coal mine and thermal power plant in northern Montenegro to the Russian company En Plus Group.
Political analysts say the failed privatisation demonstrated that Djukanovic was no longer the all-powerful leader. They argue that it also highlighted the tension between the neo-liberal approach, dominant during the Djukanovic premiership and Veselin Vukotic’s chairmanship of the Privatisation Council, and a not-so-clearly articulated development concept, which takes into account the fact that Montenegro is constitutionally defined as a social welfare state.
Political analyst Srdjan Vukadinovic says that the DPS president and his deputy, Svetozar Marovic, have probably come to the conclusion that “things are not running smoothly,” and that “the party mechanisms do not function as well as they would, if they took matters into their own hands”.
Back in 2006, the two DPS leaders decided together to stay out of government,
but now there is widespread speculation that Djukanovic will pick Marovic as his Deputy Prime Minister in the new cabinet.
Predrag Drecun, an economic analyst, told Balkan Insight that during his earlier stint as prime minster, Djukanovic tended to lean towards state interventionism, but he is now more likely to embrace Vukotic’s free-market ideas because their joint business activities have brought them closer together.
Djukanovic publicly advocated the sale of the Pljevlja power plant and mine so that, as he put it, proper conditions could be created for serious investment, making them
integral parts of Montenegro’s power supply system. But he failed because his junior coalition partners from the Social Democratic Party, SDP, sided with the opposition to vote against the tender in parliament.
This outcome was hailed as a victory for the SDP’s economic development concept, but seasoned observers have pointed out that some DPS ministers and party members running the Montenegrin Electricity Company, among them Vojin Djukanovic, share the Social Democrats’ view on this issue.
The neo-liberals were dealt another blow when the government ignored the efforts of Vukotic and his expert team who had submitted three draft versions of proposed economic reforms for the period 2007-11.
Instead of Vukotic’s neo-liberal vision, Sturanovic’s government, which had been labelled a pro-Brussels administration from the very beginning, opted on June 21 last year to work on the National EU Integration Programme, which was reportedly set to become one of the key government documents for the years ahead.
The initial draft for that programme was set to be completed by the end of last year, but it has yet to be made public.
Vukotic, who in the meantime left the Privatisation Council, has sharply criticised the government’s policies and what he has called its lack of courage to transform Montenegro into “a Mediterranean economic tiger”. He mocked the government’s National Programme and the administration’s intention to meet EU accession criteria at any cost, which he said amounted to neglecting the much faster development concept put forwarded in his own team’s draft documents.
Although he has never said it explicitly, Vukotic is believed to have spoken on behalf of Djukanovic who is one of his business partners in the project for setting up a new university in Podgorica. Vukotic’s statement that “fear of decision-making is today the key obstacle to Montenegro’s economic development” was interpreted by political pundits as a call for the reins of power to be taken once again by ”the fearless ones,” seen by many as a coded allusion to Djukanovic.
Drecun is among observers who argue that countries, such as Montenegro, which are in the midst of the transition process, need “strong political leaders.”
After the annulment of the tender procedure for Pljevlja, Deputy Prime Minister Vujica Lazovic, from the ranks of the SDP, said that bids might be invited again if
there was a government reshuffle. Djukanovic’s comeback could signal that this is about to happen.
Political analyst Svetozar Jovicevic has suggested that the DPS leader may have come to an arrangement with those involved in the privatisation of Montenegro’s industrial giant, the KAP Aluminium Plant. According to Jovicevic, quoted by MINA news agency, a deal on the sale of the major energy producers may have been agreed or at least promised, since “everyone knows that KAP cannot operate without cheap electricity”.
The argument that Djukanovic’s comeback is linked to promised further privatisation deals may be placed in a wider context. Vukotic has indicated that Montenegrin business executives, who have amassed their fortunes in the first round of privatisation, want this process to be stepped up to attract further foreign investments.
Djukanovic himself has been focusing on his own business activities – as he said he would, when he stepped down from government. According to local media, in addition to the new university project, the former prime minister has set up two companies for consulting and management in the past two years, Kapital Invest and Primary Invest, as well as a real estate agency, Select Invest. He has also purchased nearly 7% of the shares of the Niksic-based bank, Prva Banka, whose main shareholder is his brother Aco, using a €1.5 million loan from a London bank.
Djukanovic is expected to reshuffle the cabinet and redefine economic policy. This may well usher in potential conflict within the ruling coalition, particularly if speculation that there will be no place for Lazovic in government turns out to be true.
"Djukanovic will announce the agenda and the priority tasks which the new government should carry out. If this is accepted, he will demand to choose the new cabinet on his own,” a DPS source told Balkan Insight before Wednesday’s DPS meeting that backed Djukanovic’s reinstatement at the head of government.
Although Djukanovic has said that integration with the EU will be his government’s priority, some observers say his return to power may put a question mark over the continuity of the Sturanovic cabinet’s staunchly pro-European policy, as part of which a crucial Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA, has been signed with the European Union.
Meanwhile, in the short term, Djukanovic may galvanise the DPS electorate into providing support for Filip Vujanovic’s bid to retain the presidency at a time when Vujanovic is considered by many to be a relatively weak candidate. In case the president fails to win re-election, Djukanovic could be the man to prevent the further erosion of public support for the DPS.
Email a friend
Save article
Print article
Increase text size
Decrease text size07 February 2008 Montenegro’s top politician, Milo Djukanovic, is set to reclaim the post of prime minister, in a bid to speed up privatisation and boost President Vujanovic’s chances of winning re-election.
By Dragoljub Dusko in Podgorica
Milo Djukanovic is preparing to start his fifth term as prime minister following the resignation of Zeljko Sturanovic who is taking time off to receive treatment for lung cancer. His nomination was approved by the leadership of the governing Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and there is little doubt that he will get a vote of confidence in parliament.
Djukanovic’s return to government appears to be linked to his realisation that he was not able to retain full control over national policy from the sidelines.
With Montenegro’s political heavyweight back in the driving seat, it is expected that the government will pursue a more neo-liberal economic policy, further benefiting business circles that have already taken advantage of an earlier round of privatisation.
Djukanovic’s return to head the government comes in spite of a pledge he made when he made way for Sturanovic in late 2006 that he would be staying out of top posts in the state administration.
Since then he has remained influential as the President of the DPS, the dominant partner in the governing coalition.
However, observers do not agree on the reasons that have prompted Djukanovic to return to the helm just a little over a year after he stepped down from the post. Earlier there had been speculation that the governing coalition might pick him as its candidate ahead of the presidential contest on April 6.
When the DPS top brass decided instead to field the incumbent Filip Vujanovic as its candidate, speculation shifted to suggesting that Djukanovic might now aim for the premiership. The rumours have now proved to be accurate.
The opposition has interpreted Djukanovic’s expected return to a top post in the administration as a way of protecting himself from a possible unfavourable outcome of an investigation being conducted by Italian state prosecutors into his alleged involvement in cigarette smuggling in the 1990s.
Djukanovic`s lawyer said on January 18 that the investigation into the case had been completed, and that the prosecutors would be announcing their decision in the next few months. Djukanovic has repeatedly denied the charges.
“On one hand, by not running for president he [Djukanovic] fulfilled his obligation towards the international community, on the other hand he has secured himself diplomatic immunity,” said Predrag Popovic, leader of the opposition People`s Party, referring to the option of Djukanovic’s return to government and to messages from Brussels that the DPS leader should not run for the presidency before he is cleared in the Italian case.
In addition to the argument that Djukanovic might be seeking immunity from a potential prosecution by becoming prime minister again, observers have also suggested that he may have realised that he cannot control the government effectively from the shadows. Although the majority of ministers belong to the DPS, over which Djukanovic has continued to preside, he may have concluded that he needs more direct, hands-on control.
“Djukanovic is coming back as prime minister, as he realized he started to lose control over the big privatization deals, mainly in the energy sector,” Milka Tadic Mijovic of the daily Monitor, and fierce critic of Djukanovic, told Balkan Insight.
This realisation began to dawn on Djukanovic early, following his failure to ensure in 2006 that he would be succeeded in the prime minister’s post by the utterly loyal Igor Luksic, a former finance minister. Sturanovic was reportedly not Djukanovic’s first choice at the time.
Sturanovic’s illness and his need for medical treatment have now provided an opportunity for the neo-liberal faction in the DPS and the business circles closely associated with it, which began to voice their discontent with the government in the second half of last year.
While the neo-liberals favour speedy privatisation, the socio-liberal concept is for a more cautious approach to ensure that the sale of public assets is not tainted by corruption.
The neo-liberals’ distrust of the government seems to have deepened after the authorities, under pressure from their own MPs, cancelled the planned sale of the Pljevlja coal mine and thermal power plant in northern Montenegro to the Russian company En Plus Group.
Political analysts say the failed privatisation demonstrated that Djukanovic was no longer the all-powerful leader. They argue that it also highlighted the tension between the neo-liberal approach, dominant during the Djukanovic premiership and Veselin Vukotic’s chairmanship of the Privatisation Council, and a not-so-clearly articulated development concept, which takes into account the fact that Montenegro is constitutionally defined as a social welfare state.
Political analyst Srdjan Vukadinovic says that the DPS president and his deputy, Svetozar Marovic, have probably come to the conclusion that “things are not running smoothly,” and that “the party mechanisms do not function as well as they would, if they took matters into their own hands”.
Back in 2006, the two DPS leaders decided together to stay out of government,
but now there is widespread speculation that Djukanovic will pick Marovic as his Deputy Prime Minister in the new cabinet.
Predrag Drecun, an economic analyst, told Balkan Insight that during his earlier stint as prime minster, Djukanovic tended to lean towards state interventionism, but he is now more likely to embrace Vukotic’s free-market ideas because their joint business activities have brought them closer together.
Djukanovic publicly advocated the sale of the Pljevlja power plant and mine so that, as he put it, proper conditions could be created for serious investment, making them
integral parts of Montenegro’s power supply system. But he failed because his junior coalition partners from the Social Democratic Party, SDP, sided with the opposition to vote against the tender in parliament.
This outcome was hailed as a victory for the SDP’s economic development concept, but seasoned observers have pointed out that some DPS ministers and party members running the Montenegrin Electricity Company, among them Vojin Djukanovic, share the Social Democrats’ view on this issue.
The neo-liberals were dealt another blow when the government ignored the efforts of Vukotic and his expert team who had submitted three draft versions of proposed economic reforms for the period 2007-11.
Instead of Vukotic’s neo-liberal vision, Sturanovic’s government, which had been labelled a pro-Brussels administration from the very beginning, opted on June 21 last year to work on the National EU Integration Programme, which was reportedly set to become one of the key government documents for the years ahead.
The initial draft for that programme was set to be completed by the end of last year, but it has yet to be made public.
Vukotic, who in the meantime left the Privatisation Council, has sharply criticised the government’s policies and what he has called its lack of courage to transform Montenegro into “a Mediterranean economic tiger”. He mocked the government’s National Programme and the administration’s intention to meet EU accession criteria at any cost, which he said amounted to neglecting the much faster development concept put forwarded in his own team’s draft documents.
Although he has never said it explicitly, Vukotic is believed to have spoken on behalf of Djukanovic who is one of his business partners in the project for setting up a new university in Podgorica. Vukotic’s statement that “fear of decision-making is today the key obstacle to Montenegro’s economic development” was interpreted by political pundits as a call for the reins of power to be taken once again by ”the fearless ones,” seen by many as a coded allusion to Djukanovic.
Drecun is among observers who argue that countries, such as Montenegro, which are in the midst of the transition process, need “strong political leaders.”
After the annulment of the tender procedure for Pljevlja, Deputy Prime Minister Vujica Lazovic, from the ranks of the SDP, said that bids might be invited again if
there was a government reshuffle. Djukanovic’s comeback could signal that this is about to happen.
Political analyst Svetozar Jovicevic has suggested that the DPS leader may have come to an arrangement with those involved in the privatisation of Montenegro’s industrial giant, the KAP Aluminium Plant. According to Jovicevic, quoted by MINA news agency, a deal on the sale of the major energy producers may have been agreed or at least promised, since “everyone knows that KAP cannot operate without cheap electricity”.
The argument that Djukanovic’s comeback is linked to promised further privatisation deals may be placed in a wider context. Vukotic has indicated that Montenegrin business executives, who have amassed their fortunes in the first round of privatisation, want this process to be stepped up to attract further foreign investments.
Djukanovic himself has been focusing on his own business activities – as he said he would, when he stepped down from government. According to local media, in addition to the new university project, the former prime minister has set up two companies for consulting and management in the past two years, Kapital Invest and Primary Invest, as well as a real estate agency, Select Invest. He has also purchased nearly 7% of the shares of the Niksic-based bank, Prva Banka, whose main shareholder is his brother Aco, using a €1.5 million loan from a London bank.
Djukanovic is expected to reshuffle the cabinet and redefine economic policy. This may well usher in potential conflict within the ruling coalition, particularly if speculation that there will be no place for Lazovic in government turns out to be true.
"Djukanovic will announce the agenda and the priority tasks which the new government should carry out. If this is accepted, he will demand to choose the new cabinet on his own,” a DPS source told Balkan Insight before Wednesday’s DPS meeting that backed Djukanovic’s reinstatement at the head of government.
Although Djukanovic has said that integration with the EU will be his government’s priority, some observers say his return to power may put a question mark over the continuity of the Sturanovic cabinet’s staunchly pro-European policy, as part of which a crucial Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA, has been signed with the European Union.
Meanwhile, in the short term, Djukanovic may galvanise the DPS electorate into providing support for Filip Vujanovic’s bid to retain the presidency at a time when Vujanovic is considered by many to be a relatively weak candidate. In case the president fails to win re-election, Djukanovic could be the man to prevent the further erosion of public support for the DPS.