Post by theblackswans on Nov 26, 2007 8:16:33 GMT -5
Bosnia’s political crisis, which started in October when party leaders failed to reach an agreement on police reform, and escalated when Prime Minister Nikola Spiric resigned at the start of November, has generated widespread uneasiness in the country.
However, politicians and commentators have sought to calm fears that Bosnia’s political system could collapse and have dismissed comparisons with the situation immediately before the 1992-95 war.
“I hope we will not have to go through another war,” Azemina S, a Sarajevo newspaper vendor, told Balkan Insight. “I am very afraid for my kids. I can maybe live through it one more time, but what should I do with them?”
Jasna H, who works with Azemina, was so afraid when the word “war” was mentioned in her presence that she started to cry.
“I feel pain in my stomach just when you ask me something like that,” Jasna said, turning her face away to hide her tears.
“I hope the world will not let us die again,” Ibrahim Kumric, a pensioner, told Balkan Insight.
Almost all political leaders in Bosnia, however, have been quick to dismiss any possibility of a breakdown in security as a result of the political crisis.
Martin Raguz of the Croatian Democratic Union – 1990, HDZ 1990, said the current situation is “the most dangerous,” and he called on his fellow parliamentarians to find ways to calm things down, but in an interview with Balkan Insight Raguz ruled out the possibility of a return to war.
“I think war is not a possible option. It would be too risky, not only for Bosnia but for the whole region and for Europe it self. The worst possible scenario is isolation and the status quo.”
Raguz’ opinion is shared by other members of Parliament such as Lazar Prodanovic of the SNSD, who discounts the sense of even talking about war in Bosnia.
“But I see that people are afraid. What worries me most is poverty, evident everywhere. My biggest worry is this tragic situation of not being able to sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement,” said Prodanovic.
An agreement on police reform would have opened the way for Bosnia to initial a Stabilization and Association Agreement, SAA, with the European Union. After Serbia last week initialed such an agreement, Bosnia is now the only country in the region without a formal contractual relationship with the EU.
“I read different analyses and statements, and have just to say that we are an exotic area of the world which amuses foreigners to predict different situations,” said Mladen Ivanic, leader of the Party of Democratic Progress, PDP. “But the truth is that the solution to the current crisis lies with the domestic community. From our point of view, a solution is to continue talking about constitutional changes that will help to resolve all the relevant issues.”
Ivanic warned that even though there is no danger of a return to violence, fear of a deterioration in the present situation could generate an economic crisis. “What can happen is that some investors will have a problem with doing business in Bosnia. But I believe that others will not.”
Social Democratic Party leader Zlatko Lagumdzija believes that there are many reasons war in Bosnia is not possible, the first of these being international opinion.
“The world learned a lesson from the previous war. At the same time, the world invested a lot in this area, in efforts to prove that democracy is possible in a multinational society. To risk all that would offer a bad picture of the international community. Just to begin with, that’s a good enough guarantee of peace in Bosnia.”
BPS leader Sefer Halilovic, a former wartime head of the Bosnian army, believes that decisions about war and peace in Bosnia are not taken domestically but internationally.
“The international community here is at the same time a guarantee of stability and instability,” he says. “We will see which will prevail.”
A spokesperson for the European Union’s military deployment in Bosnia, EUFOR, said there was no visible deterioration in the security situation. “The environment is still safe and secure,” EUFOR’s British spokesperson, Major Dave Fielder, told Balkan Insight. “There has been peace here since 1995; EUFOR is here to ensure that this peace remains in place.”
EUFOR currently has 2,500 troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina and has the capacity to call on substantial additional troops from elsewhere in the region.
EUFOR told Balkan Insight that it has “a very credible capability that can react as needed to situations as they arise. EUFOR also has plans that allow for reinforcements to arrive very quickly if needed. These forces, as those currently in the BiH theatre, will be well trained, equipped and motivated. We are very keen to assure all the people of BiH that we are prepared to act as necessary in any circumstance. However, we are also very keen to state again that there is no change in the security situation. BiH remains calm and stable.”
EUFOR’s current mandate expires at the end of this year. The Security Council will discuss an extension of the mandate on November 21. The Office of the High Representative, OHR, and the European Union support an extension, but Russia has recently appeared to be somewhat ambivalent.
In his regular semi-annual briefing to the UN Security Council on November 15, Miroslav Lajcak, who is the European Union’s Special Representative in Bosnia as well as the international community’s High Representative, noting that “extending EUFOR’s mandate is a key guarantee that political issues that must be addressed as part of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-war recovery can be addressed in a safe and secure environment.”
Lajcak warned that the country now has two clear options – an escalation of the crisis, or a de-escalation that will allow the parties to work on issues that affect the people’s livelihood.
“Local actors can continue to act in bad faith and continue to escalate the situation, or they can act in good faith, and direct Bosnia and Herzegovina back onto its European path,” Lajcak said.
Last week Lajcak’s deputy, Raffi Gregorian, an American diplomat, told members of the US Helsinki Committee that Bosnia and Herzegovina had reached “a vital moment” in its history and that “its very survival could be determined in the next few months, if not the next few weeks.”
“The international community can ill afford to have its successful post-conflict efforts in Bosnia overturned into a humiliating defeat,” Gregorian remarked in his address to the Helsinki Committee. “Nor can it afford to allow images of people fleeing areas in which they are ethnic minorities, fearing the worst will happen again in the space of the same generation,” he added.
Alexandra Stiglmayer, a veteran journalist and Balkan expert who spent many years during the war and afterwards working in Bosnia, takes the view that there is no chance of the present situation developing into war.
“The people of Bosnia have first-hand experience of war, and there is nothing they want less. It is irresponsible to evoke the possibility of armed conflict because this creates insecurity and scares off investors that the country needs so much. Even the practical preconditions no longer exist: Bosnia is largely disarmed and the defense forces have been integrated,” said Stiglmayer, an analyst with the European Stability Initiative.
Stiglmayer, like others, warned that talking up the crisis could have negative economic consequences.
“I think you should be afraid of a wrong image of Bosnia being created by a few domestic politicians, but, perhaps more importantly, some international officials too. Bosnia is not anywhere near another war. It does not swarm with Wahhabis and al-Qaeda sympathizers. It is not a hotbed of corruption and organized crime. Bosnia has successfully completed many difficult reforms, from defense reform to judicial and economic reform, and refugee return has been a greater success than in any other country in a similar situation. These are the things that Bosnia’s politicians and ambassadors, as well as the foreign officials dealing with it, should emphasize.”
OHR Communications Director Frane Maroevic also points to the economic consequences of political gridlock. “We can see a huge increase in prices these days. With the political situation like it is, it will not help the economy to improve,” he said.
The OHR repeatedly cites a return to the road to Europe as the only solution to the present crisis.
Aleksandar Trifunoviv, an editor at BUKA, an online publication in Banja Luka, believes that tensions are more present than at the start of the nineties, but he too believes there is no possibility of another war because of the presence of the international community in BiH. But he raises an important question.
“Another question arises from the situation we are in today – is the war really over?”
“My personal feeling is that after Dayton the war continued; it’s just that other types of weapons are being used – media, culture, sport, religion... In my opinion, all these negotiations among local politicians are just like a ceasefire during a war. After every ceasefire usually the fighting resumes.”
Nerzuk Curak, a Sarajevo professor, is close to this way of thinking. He does not think war is possible now or in the near future, but he also asks if the current situation can be even called peace.
“In the last 12 postDayton years we do not have peace in Bosnia but war present through its unpresence. The way the state is organised cannot provide a stable peace but can only add to instability. This cannot lead to war one day, because it is not in the proper sense of the word peace.“
Nerzuk Curak concludes ironically, “Sleep peacefully. We will not have another war. And the reason why is that it is not possible to have what we already have now. It is not officially war, but it is nothing else but war. What a country. O my God, what a country!“
Nidzara Ahmetasevic is a Balkan Insight contributor and editor of BIRN`s Justice Report. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.
However, politicians and commentators have sought to calm fears that Bosnia’s political system could collapse and have dismissed comparisons with the situation immediately before the 1992-95 war.
“I hope we will not have to go through another war,” Azemina S, a Sarajevo newspaper vendor, told Balkan Insight. “I am very afraid for my kids. I can maybe live through it one more time, but what should I do with them?”
Jasna H, who works with Azemina, was so afraid when the word “war” was mentioned in her presence that she started to cry.
“I feel pain in my stomach just when you ask me something like that,” Jasna said, turning her face away to hide her tears.
“I hope the world will not let us die again,” Ibrahim Kumric, a pensioner, told Balkan Insight.
Almost all political leaders in Bosnia, however, have been quick to dismiss any possibility of a breakdown in security as a result of the political crisis.
Martin Raguz of the Croatian Democratic Union – 1990, HDZ 1990, said the current situation is “the most dangerous,” and he called on his fellow parliamentarians to find ways to calm things down, but in an interview with Balkan Insight Raguz ruled out the possibility of a return to war.
“I think war is not a possible option. It would be too risky, not only for Bosnia but for the whole region and for Europe it self. The worst possible scenario is isolation and the status quo.”
Raguz’ opinion is shared by other members of Parliament such as Lazar Prodanovic of the SNSD, who discounts the sense of even talking about war in Bosnia.
“But I see that people are afraid. What worries me most is poverty, evident everywhere. My biggest worry is this tragic situation of not being able to sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement,” said Prodanovic.
An agreement on police reform would have opened the way for Bosnia to initial a Stabilization and Association Agreement, SAA, with the European Union. After Serbia last week initialed such an agreement, Bosnia is now the only country in the region without a formal contractual relationship with the EU.
“I read different analyses and statements, and have just to say that we are an exotic area of the world which amuses foreigners to predict different situations,” said Mladen Ivanic, leader of the Party of Democratic Progress, PDP. “But the truth is that the solution to the current crisis lies with the domestic community. From our point of view, a solution is to continue talking about constitutional changes that will help to resolve all the relevant issues.”
Ivanic warned that even though there is no danger of a return to violence, fear of a deterioration in the present situation could generate an economic crisis. “What can happen is that some investors will have a problem with doing business in Bosnia. But I believe that others will not.”
Social Democratic Party leader Zlatko Lagumdzija believes that there are many reasons war in Bosnia is not possible, the first of these being international opinion.
“The world learned a lesson from the previous war. At the same time, the world invested a lot in this area, in efforts to prove that democracy is possible in a multinational society. To risk all that would offer a bad picture of the international community. Just to begin with, that’s a good enough guarantee of peace in Bosnia.”
BPS leader Sefer Halilovic, a former wartime head of the Bosnian army, believes that decisions about war and peace in Bosnia are not taken domestically but internationally.
“The international community here is at the same time a guarantee of stability and instability,” he says. “We will see which will prevail.”
A spokesperson for the European Union’s military deployment in Bosnia, EUFOR, said there was no visible deterioration in the security situation. “The environment is still safe and secure,” EUFOR’s British spokesperson, Major Dave Fielder, told Balkan Insight. “There has been peace here since 1995; EUFOR is here to ensure that this peace remains in place.”
EUFOR currently has 2,500 troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina and has the capacity to call on substantial additional troops from elsewhere in the region.
EUFOR told Balkan Insight that it has “a very credible capability that can react as needed to situations as they arise. EUFOR also has plans that allow for reinforcements to arrive very quickly if needed. These forces, as those currently in the BiH theatre, will be well trained, equipped and motivated. We are very keen to assure all the people of BiH that we are prepared to act as necessary in any circumstance. However, we are also very keen to state again that there is no change in the security situation. BiH remains calm and stable.”
EUFOR’s current mandate expires at the end of this year. The Security Council will discuss an extension of the mandate on November 21. The Office of the High Representative, OHR, and the European Union support an extension, but Russia has recently appeared to be somewhat ambivalent.
In his regular semi-annual briefing to the UN Security Council on November 15, Miroslav Lajcak, who is the European Union’s Special Representative in Bosnia as well as the international community’s High Representative, noting that “extending EUFOR’s mandate is a key guarantee that political issues that must be addressed as part of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-war recovery can be addressed in a safe and secure environment.”
Lajcak warned that the country now has two clear options – an escalation of the crisis, or a de-escalation that will allow the parties to work on issues that affect the people’s livelihood.
“Local actors can continue to act in bad faith and continue to escalate the situation, or they can act in good faith, and direct Bosnia and Herzegovina back onto its European path,” Lajcak said.
Last week Lajcak’s deputy, Raffi Gregorian, an American diplomat, told members of the US Helsinki Committee that Bosnia and Herzegovina had reached “a vital moment” in its history and that “its very survival could be determined in the next few months, if not the next few weeks.”
“The international community can ill afford to have its successful post-conflict efforts in Bosnia overturned into a humiliating defeat,” Gregorian remarked in his address to the Helsinki Committee. “Nor can it afford to allow images of people fleeing areas in which they are ethnic minorities, fearing the worst will happen again in the space of the same generation,” he added.
Alexandra Stiglmayer, a veteran journalist and Balkan expert who spent many years during the war and afterwards working in Bosnia, takes the view that there is no chance of the present situation developing into war.
“The people of Bosnia have first-hand experience of war, and there is nothing they want less. It is irresponsible to evoke the possibility of armed conflict because this creates insecurity and scares off investors that the country needs so much. Even the practical preconditions no longer exist: Bosnia is largely disarmed and the defense forces have been integrated,” said Stiglmayer, an analyst with the European Stability Initiative.
Stiglmayer, like others, warned that talking up the crisis could have negative economic consequences.
“I think you should be afraid of a wrong image of Bosnia being created by a few domestic politicians, but, perhaps more importantly, some international officials too. Bosnia is not anywhere near another war. It does not swarm with Wahhabis and al-Qaeda sympathizers. It is not a hotbed of corruption and organized crime. Bosnia has successfully completed many difficult reforms, from defense reform to judicial and economic reform, and refugee return has been a greater success than in any other country in a similar situation. These are the things that Bosnia’s politicians and ambassadors, as well as the foreign officials dealing with it, should emphasize.”
OHR Communications Director Frane Maroevic also points to the economic consequences of political gridlock. “We can see a huge increase in prices these days. With the political situation like it is, it will not help the economy to improve,” he said.
The OHR repeatedly cites a return to the road to Europe as the only solution to the present crisis.
Aleksandar Trifunoviv, an editor at BUKA, an online publication in Banja Luka, believes that tensions are more present than at the start of the nineties, but he too believes there is no possibility of another war because of the presence of the international community in BiH. But he raises an important question.
“Another question arises from the situation we are in today – is the war really over?”
“My personal feeling is that after Dayton the war continued; it’s just that other types of weapons are being used – media, culture, sport, religion... In my opinion, all these negotiations among local politicians are just like a ceasefire during a war. After every ceasefire usually the fighting resumes.”
Nerzuk Curak, a Sarajevo professor, is close to this way of thinking. He does not think war is possible now or in the near future, but he also asks if the current situation can be even called peace.
“In the last 12 postDayton years we do not have peace in Bosnia but war present through its unpresence. The way the state is organised cannot provide a stable peace but can only add to instability. This cannot lead to war one day, because it is not in the proper sense of the word peace.“
Nerzuk Curak concludes ironically, “Sleep peacefully. We will not have another war. And the reason why is that it is not possible to have what we already have now. It is not officially war, but it is nothing else but war. What a country. O my God, what a country!“
Nidzara Ahmetasevic is a Balkan Insight contributor and editor of BIRN`s Justice Report. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.