|
Post by radovic on Nov 28, 2007 16:50:02 GMT -5
Croatia:PBZ estimates economic growth deceleration
EMonline
GDP growth will decelerate from estimated 6,6% this year to 5,1% in 2008
GDP growth will decelerate from estimated 6,6% this year to 5,1% in 2008, mainly as a consequence of post-election halt in conducting of necessary structural reforms and Central bank's measures limiting the credit growth, estimated analysts of Privredna banka Zagreb (PBZ), 'Croatia Today' reports.
As stated, it is estimated that post-election year 2008 would inevitably witness deceleration in enforcing of the necessary structural reforms, while fiscal policy would largely be affected by pre-election pledges of the new Government and would remain unknown until adoption of the budget for next year.
PBZ analysts also claim that high growth rate was unsustainable in long-term without overall structural reforms in the sphere of public administration, healthcare and legal system, accompanied by reduction of public expenditures in the GDP and further simplification of business operations in the country. ( Croatia Today)
|
|
MiG
Amicus
Republika
Posts: 4,793
|
Post by MiG on Nov 30, 2007 12:12:14 GMT -5
^ I'm not surprised at this at all, if it happens. Many say it will continue at a 7%+ growth in 2008, but who knows.
Anyway, a reason this might happen is because the Judicial reforms are so slow, which are impacting on the economy due to corruption within the government. Tudjman shouldn't have allowed such stuff to happen in the first place back in 1991-1992, but it did, and he didn't bother fixing it. When the SDP came to power in 2000, that's when things started happening. The current Government is doing much better, but still not enough, and in my opinion, Ivo Sanader is all to blame.
|
|
Trazi Vise
Amicus
Today's "church" has NOTHING to do with religion.
Posts: 3,126
|
Post by Trazi Vise on Nov 30, 2007 23:58:26 GMT -5
I am a little worried that if growth maintains very high that there will be a recession because of such fast growth. Then I hope the people can recover as they are already starting to borrow lots of money. How will they pay it off when the growth stops? Time will tell, it will be interesting to see.
|
|
MiG
Amicus
Republika
Posts: 4,793
|
Post by MiG on Dec 2, 2007 17:06:07 GMT -5
^ Steady growth is good growth. There is still a lot of sectors of the economy/government to overhaul, and this will only aid in the steady growth. But as you said, time will tell, and our next government officials responsible for this, better do a good job of it. Elections are only 2 years and some change away.
|
|
Zvone
Amicus
Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.
Posts: 525
|
Post by Zvone on Dec 2, 2007 21:10:25 GMT -5
Recessions come naturally after expansions as aggregate demand inevitably overshoots aggregate supply, leading to rising inflation. Higher inflation forces monetary policy into a contractionary stance, driving up interest rates and dampening spending. Unless the Federal Reserve can manage this process in a very precise manner, there is a good chance that a recession will occur. However, I am not familiar with the Federal Reserve in Croatia.
|
|