Post by MiG on Feb 15, 2008 1:16:57 GMT -5
Govt Has No Plan if Croats Say No at Referendum
Croatian government spokesman Mehun says the government will do everything to animate the Croatian public to enter the EU.
ZAGREB, CROATIA - According to signals it is receiving from members of the European Commission, Croatia will enter the European Union in 2009. But if the implementation of the necessary reforms extends, the deadline will extend for a year or two. Still, one has to ask what happens if what legal experts fear will happen, that is, that Croatian citizens do not support Croatia’s entry into the EU at the referendum. Javno Portal has already written about a provision of the Constitution according to which the majority of the total number of voters in the country have to take part in the referendum. Parliament speaker Vladimir Seks said that only 60 to 65 percent of citizens take part in elections and there have been ideas that the provision about the majority necessary for referendums be amended, which would mean revising the Constitution.
Government: we will do anything to enter the EU
But it seems that the Croatian government is not prepared for the scenario that could happen if the provision is not amended and the EU does not get the necessary support at the referendum. Government spokesman Zlatko Mehun says there is no point in writing about the possibility of Croatia not entering the EU. He says the government would do anything to animate the Croatian public to support the EU.
- We will not comment on "could-have should-have", but we will do everything to have the negotiations end by the summer of 2008 – Mehun said, without giving a concrete reply as to what would happen if citizens dismiss membership in the EU.
- In any case the government will act the same and there will be no surprises – Mehun said. The Ministrty of Foreign Affairs and European Integration says the government would work on strengthening the positive atmosphere in society with the aim of realising permanent progress and development of the society and state.
Ministry believes citizens will vote for the EU
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration is carrying out a communications strategy to inform the Croatian public about the European Union and preparations for membership – officials at the ministry said, adding that the aim of the strategy was the widest, most thorough possible understanding of all aspects of approaching the European Union.
The ministry expects citizens to decide based on this government strategy.
- It is our belief that citizens will opt for the EU At the referendum – says the ministry.
Mimica: There is no plan B
It would not be good if there was no plan B, especially considering the claim of the SDP’s former foreign minister Neven Mimica.
- As far as I know there are only cost analyses and use analyses in case of Croatia’s entry in the EU, but there is no plan in case Croatia does not enter the EU – Mimica said, stressing that the possibility of citizens refusing the EU was possible.
Mimica points out the opening of the market as one of Croatia’s gains as a member of the EU.
- By dismissing the EU, Croatian goods would lose the opportunity of getting up to 100 times more consumers – Mimica stressed. He admitted that unemployment would not go down if Croatia entered the EU. Most of the work force then would come from Bulgaria and Rumania, so the competition would rise.
If we refuse the EU, we are facing the Balkan package
Former foreign minister Mate Granic believes the Constitution provision will be amended, facilitating the process of entering the EU, and as soon as this year. But in case the Constitution remains unchanged and so Croatia does not enter the EU, Granic foresees a possible scenario for plan B.
- If we do not enter the European Union by 2011, we will wait for the Balkan package – Granic said. According to him, if an insufficient number of Croatians take part in the referendum, the provision could change later and after a repeated referendum Croatia could enter the EU together with Serbia, Montenegro and other less developed countries of the region.
Real-estate prices to go up
After joining the EU, the average prices of real-estate go up significantly for new members, by 30 percent on the national level and 40 percent in capitals on average.
Investments in tourism higher by 104%
Tourism could feel the greatest effect of joining the EU by 2015, so the number of tourist arrivals would increase by 10.1%.
Gross incomes from catering would increase by 35.9% and the number of hotels by 23.9 percent. The prices of hotel rooms would go up by 23.3%, that is, by EUR10.1. Investments in tourism would increase by as much as 104 percent.
Science’s windfall
The positive effects from advancing science and higher education systems would be exceptionally great and include an increase in the economy’s competitiveness, production and GDP, an increase in salaries and possibilities of employment and a decrease of poverty.
Croatia could become less profitable for foreign investors
The former foreign minister believes that in case Croatia does not enter the EU, it will become less profitable for foreign investors. Another problem is that the credit risk and the price of capital would automatically grow. Also, one of Croatia’s most important sources of income, tourism, will suffer, he says.
- Croatia desperately needs profiling as a country of high tourism, which is more possible to achieve if the country is a member of NATO and the EU – Granic said.
Croatia’s scientists could also feel the fallout of not joining the EU because Croatia would have a hard time keeping up with the technological development without the assistance of European funds, Granic said.
‘The repercussions of not joining would not be so dramatic’
The head of the institute which the government charged in 2006 with analysing expected effects of joining the EU, Sandra Svaljek, said tourism could bear the biggest consequences of Croatia refusing the EU. Svaljek also warned of the possibility of Croatian companies becoming indebted.
But all those fearing negative consequences of the possible refusal of the EU can relax, Svaljek said, because the consequences would not be as dramatic as they seem.
- By the time the agreement is signed we would have prepared and taken over the European legislature – Svaljek stressed. She concluded that in case Croatia did not access the EU, the situation would not be largely different.
‘Most Croatians see joining the EU as a political issue’
Dubravko Mihaljek, one of Croatia’s leading economists at the Basel International Payments Bank says that most citizens see Croatia’s joining the EU as primarily a political issue.
In his report as part of an analysis on joining the EU which the Economy Institute drafted for the government, Mihaljek stressed a possible average growth of the GDP of 4.9% per anum in the period from 2009 to 2025.
Mihaljek says that this was by 0.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate the economy would see if Croatia did not join the EU.
Fishermen and farmers will refuse the EU?
Mihaljek said the most positive consequences of joining the EU would fall on exporters, sectors attractive for foreign investments, non-banking financial institutions, the labour market, small and middle-scale businesses, tourism, environment protection and quality of life, science and research, high education and consumer protection.
- Agriculture and fishery will face most problems – Mihaljek says. But he stresses that Croatia’s accession into the EU would have positive effects on economic growth, spending, exports and prosperity.
Croatian government spokesman Mehun says the government will do everything to animate the Croatian public to enter the EU.
ZAGREB, CROATIA - According to signals it is receiving from members of the European Commission, Croatia will enter the European Union in 2009. But if the implementation of the necessary reforms extends, the deadline will extend for a year or two. Still, one has to ask what happens if what legal experts fear will happen, that is, that Croatian citizens do not support Croatia’s entry into the EU at the referendum. Javno Portal has already written about a provision of the Constitution according to which the majority of the total number of voters in the country have to take part in the referendum. Parliament speaker Vladimir Seks said that only 60 to 65 percent of citizens take part in elections and there have been ideas that the provision about the majority necessary for referendums be amended, which would mean revising the Constitution.
Government: we will do anything to enter the EU
But it seems that the Croatian government is not prepared for the scenario that could happen if the provision is not amended and the EU does not get the necessary support at the referendum. Government spokesman Zlatko Mehun says there is no point in writing about the possibility of Croatia not entering the EU. He says the government would do anything to animate the Croatian public to support the EU.
- We will not comment on "could-have should-have", but we will do everything to have the negotiations end by the summer of 2008 – Mehun said, without giving a concrete reply as to what would happen if citizens dismiss membership in the EU.
- In any case the government will act the same and there will be no surprises – Mehun said. The Ministrty of Foreign Affairs and European Integration says the government would work on strengthening the positive atmosphere in society with the aim of realising permanent progress and development of the society and state.
Ministry believes citizens will vote for the EU
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration is carrying out a communications strategy to inform the Croatian public about the European Union and preparations for membership – officials at the ministry said, adding that the aim of the strategy was the widest, most thorough possible understanding of all aspects of approaching the European Union.
The ministry expects citizens to decide based on this government strategy.
- It is our belief that citizens will opt for the EU At the referendum – says the ministry.
Mimica: There is no plan B
It would not be good if there was no plan B, especially considering the claim of the SDP’s former foreign minister Neven Mimica.
- As far as I know there are only cost analyses and use analyses in case of Croatia’s entry in the EU, but there is no plan in case Croatia does not enter the EU – Mimica said, stressing that the possibility of citizens refusing the EU was possible.
Mimica points out the opening of the market as one of Croatia’s gains as a member of the EU.
- By dismissing the EU, Croatian goods would lose the opportunity of getting up to 100 times more consumers – Mimica stressed. He admitted that unemployment would not go down if Croatia entered the EU. Most of the work force then would come from Bulgaria and Rumania, so the competition would rise.
If we refuse the EU, we are facing the Balkan package
Former foreign minister Mate Granic believes the Constitution provision will be amended, facilitating the process of entering the EU, and as soon as this year. But in case the Constitution remains unchanged and so Croatia does not enter the EU, Granic foresees a possible scenario for plan B.
- If we do not enter the European Union by 2011, we will wait for the Balkan package – Granic said. According to him, if an insufficient number of Croatians take part in the referendum, the provision could change later and after a repeated referendum Croatia could enter the EU together with Serbia, Montenegro and other less developed countries of the region.
Real-estate prices to go up
After joining the EU, the average prices of real-estate go up significantly for new members, by 30 percent on the national level and 40 percent in capitals on average.
Investments in tourism higher by 104%
Tourism could feel the greatest effect of joining the EU by 2015, so the number of tourist arrivals would increase by 10.1%.
Gross incomes from catering would increase by 35.9% and the number of hotels by 23.9 percent. The prices of hotel rooms would go up by 23.3%, that is, by EUR10.1. Investments in tourism would increase by as much as 104 percent.
Science’s windfall
The positive effects from advancing science and higher education systems would be exceptionally great and include an increase in the economy’s competitiveness, production and GDP, an increase in salaries and possibilities of employment and a decrease of poverty.
Croatia could become less profitable for foreign investors
The former foreign minister believes that in case Croatia does not enter the EU, it will become less profitable for foreign investors. Another problem is that the credit risk and the price of capital would automatically grow. Also, one of Croatia’s most important sources of income, tourism, will suffer, he says.
- Croatia desperately needs profiling as a country of high tourism, which is more possible to achieve if the country is a member of NATO and the EU – Granic said.
Croatia’s scientists could also feel the fallout of not joining the EU because Croatia would have a hard time keeping up with the technological development without the assistance of European funds, Granic said.
‘The repercussions of not joining would not be so dramatic’
The head of the institute which the government charged in 2006 with analysing expected effects of joining the EU, Sandra Svaljek, said tourism could bear the biggest consequences of Croatia refusing the EU. Svaljek also warned of the possibility of Croatian companies becoming indebted.
But all those fearing negative consequences of the possible refusal of the EU can relax, Svaljek said, because the consequences would not be as dramatic as they seem.
- By the time the agreement is signed we would have prepared and taken over the European legislature – Svaljek stressed. She concluded that in case Croatia did not access the EU, the situation would not be largely different.
‘Most Croatians see joining the EU as a political issue’
Dubravko Mihaljek, one of Croatia’s leading economists at the Basel International Payments Bank says that most citizens see Croatia’s joining the EU as primarily a political issue.
In his report as part of an analysis on joining the EU which the Economy Institute drafted for the government, Mihaljek stressed a possible average growth of the GDP of 4.9% per anum in the period from 2009 to 2025.
Mihaljek says that this was by 0.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate the economy would see if Croatia did not join the EU.
Fishermen and farmers will refuse the EU?
Mihaljek said the most positive consequences of joining the EU would fall on exporters, sectors attractive for foreign investments, non-banking financial institutions, the labour market, small and middle-scale businesses, tourism, environment protection and quality of life, science and research, high education and consumer protection.
- Agriculture and fishery will face most problems – Mihaljek says. But he stresses that Croatia’s accession into the EU would have positive effects on economic growth, spending, exports and prosperity.
Source: www.javno.com/en/croatia/clanak.php?id=123533