Post by Arthur Kane on Jan 29, 2009 12:18:30 GMT -5
What do u think ?
Sure you want me to answer this question?
Difficult to tell, as Serbia would have declared full out support for RS at that point in time, as even worse cases of people "emigrating" from that region would prompt a severe reaction from the international body (United Nations). This hypothetical question cannot be answered, as there is millions of endings. Had it fallen, you may have gotten an all out war, with the JNA going on a destruction binge, and NATO taking all the blame for such a thing. Had it fallen, the war may have ended in 1995, or 2005, depending on the economy and complexity of will from Serbia-Montenegro (And they're staunch supporters).
Exactly. Good interpretation, but that one of the millions of ways it could have ended; that one being the lesser of two evils.
Things would have still stayed the same, or the Governments of Croatia and Bosnia would have had to deal with huge genocide cases had ethnic cleansing been the case. (Realize that you cannot just erase 1.4M people)
Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats would STILL be constituent people, as BiH cannot work without such a system (If someone tried, it would be civil war all over again).
No. Cannot happen, as Croats in Croatia and Serbs in Serbia would never allow such a thing. See, there's a thing called extremism in the Balkans, and it can be used as a political and propagandist tool.
Correct. More bad would have come out of it, than good. Just overview the scenario right before HV, HVO, and ARBiH started the offensives (counter-offensives), onto RS. VRS was logistically crippled by NATO as a punishment for Genocide and Bombings/Siege of Sarajevo.
Good thread Cikola. Real Food for thought s**t.
EDIT: Just saw this comment and thought I'd add to it.
If any of you dumb f**ks still continue to talk about some BiH Army or HV advancements in BiH without considering NATO huge involvement in this then you are some serious f**king RETARD.
Strategically, HV, HVO, and ARBiH, could have done it, but it would have taken them more than a year to do so (Make Banja Luka Fall that is), without NATO involvement. Think in terms of Morale, Tactics, Materials etc.
BTW, no question is stupid, and is always worth asking. Don't belittle anyone, and don't insult. If you have something to say, say it nicely.
Here-on in, good behavior please. Don't be a dick.
One of the main political goals of Operation Storm was to create an everlasting (at least in theory) cease fire in Croatia and Bosnia. Croatia and Serbia would've been immobilized by the West had they only declared support for their quasi-states in Bosnia ( or in Croatia for the Serbs as well). One of the prerequisites was that Serbia and Croatia would both have to recognize territorial integrity of Bosnia as it was defined in the former Yugoslavia. The trade off was that Croatian government would have full control over its territory, including the former Serb Knin republic and the Serbs in Bosnia would have an autonomous political entity.
In terms of cultural and economic ties, the Bosniak-Croat Federation would gravitate more towards Croatia while the Serb republic would establish formal ties with Serbia.
The HVO, the Bosnian Croat militia, was poorly armed and lacked manpower. The only reason it was a factor in Operation Storm is because the Croatian government was allowed to supply it with means and Croatian regular troops can work with them. Much is the same case for the Bosnian Army. Poorly armed but had plenty of manpower. The HVO or the Bosnian Army by themselves without Croatian Army and NATO support would probably not be able to get the Serbs in some kind of position for negotiation.
