Post by zgembo on Nov 13, 2008 14:27:58 GMT -5
Bosnia’s ‘Historic’ Deal Meets Relief and Doubt
13 November 2008 Sudden agreement reached by the three strongest parties may offer way out of current deadlock, but only if it is implemented.
By Srecko Latal in Sarajevo
European officials have “noted with satisfaction” the recent “historic” agreement between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three ruling parties and have “invited the Bosnian political forces to unite around this project”.
The statement issued by the European Commission’s External Relations Council, refers to the out-of-the-blue agreement reached over the weekend by three parties – the Bosnian Serb Union of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, the Bosniak party of Democratic Action, SDA, and the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ – over some hotly disputed issues.
Resolution of these issues is seen as crucial for the continuation of Bosnia’s EU accession process and for the closure of the Office of the High Representative, OHR.
Only last month, European officials were describing the political deadlock in Bosnia in alarming terms.
On October 10, the Council “voiced deep concern at recent developments in the political situation… particularly the use of nationalist rhetoric and the implementation of unilateral decisions by some leaders, thereby jeopardizing power-sharing and the foundations of the state.”
But while the latest agreement has been hailed as “historic” by local media and international officials, it may not take effect. Having strained already-fragile relations within the ruling coalition to breaking point, Bosnia may face new political deadlock, therefore, or fresh elections.
“Everything is possible now”, an editor of the influential Sarajevo daily Dnevni Avaz, Sead Numanovic, told the Balkan Insight.
For two years, Bosnia’s political scene has been dominated by infighting, radical rhetoric and personal animosities among local leaders.
The principal quarrel has pitted Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serb SNSD, against Haris Silajdzic, head of the Bosniak Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, SZBH.
The quarrels, which started ahead of the 2006 general elections, have tainted relations between the parties and increased ethnic tension.
The resulting political deadlock has blocked the progress, or reversed, crucial institutional, economic and social reforms, affecting the country’s hopes of eventual EU membership.
The international community meanwhile has appeared distracted by other foreign challenges, in Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo – and its coherence has been diluted by Russia’s growing engagement in the Balkans on the side of its Serbian allies.
The European Union finally awoke to the scale of the problem a month ago, after foreign diplomats and local officials warned that Bosnia faced division or even armed conflict.
European diplomats launched a diplomatic offensive, resulting in the drafting of a new strategy for Bosnia based on stronger engagement as well as a continued mandate for the EU peace forces, EUFOR.
Sources close to Brussels officials and Bosnia’s own leadership, told Balkan Insight that the EU offensive contributed to the “historic agreement” reached suddenly on October 8 in the northern town of Bosanski Samac.
Another key element behind this breakthrough was the action of the leader of the SDA, Sulejman Tihic.
In the October 5 local elections, the SDA scored a sweeping victory among Bosniak voters, reinforcing Tihic’s previously fragile position in his own party as well as his position in relation to his biggest rival, Haris Silajdzic of the SZBH.
On October 13, Tihic surprised everybody by appearing at a tense session of the Bosnian Serb parliament and tried to calm local politicians, infuriated by Silajdzic’s anti-Serbian rhetoric.
On October 15, Tihic met the President of Croatia, Stipe Mesic, and the Croatian Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader, in Zagreb, before traveling to Belgrade on November 4 to meet Serbia’s President, Boris Tadic.
After the meetings, both Croatian and Serbian leaders came up with strong public statements in support of Bosnia’s territorial integrity.
Western diplomats told Balkan Insight that soon after the Belgrade meeting, Tadic telephoned Dodik, who is also Prime Minister of the Republika Srpska.
Details of this private conversation have not been made public but the conversation clearly helped create a positive atmosphere for the October 8 meeting of Bosnian leaders.
At the meeting, Dodik, Tihic and Dragan Covic, leader of the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, agreed in outline within only two hours on how to resolve several issues that have vexed the country for two years now.
One is the future status of the District of Brcko. Here, they agreed that further constitutional reform and legalization of the status of Brcko District would be undertaken through proper parliamentary procedures.
Another was a compromise over the questions that would be covered in the 2011 census. They also agreed basic principles concerning the division of state property.
If the agreement lasts, it would fulfill most key preconditions for the closure of the OHR, which would mark a major step towards fulfillment of the requirements for EU membership.
However, the successful implementation of the deal was immediately put in doubt after two junior coalition parties in government – and their leaders – who were not invited to the meeting, rejected the agreement and slammed their partners-turn-opponents.
A split-off from the HDZ, HDZ1990, led by Bozo Ljubic, accused the big three parties of trying to establish “a monopoly” in terms of their representation of the three main ethnic communities.
Silajdzic went further, accusing Tihic of “betraying” Bosniak interests and of yielding to Dodik’s pressure.
The three parties behind the agreement, as well as international officials, rebuffed these criticisms.
In particular, the High Representative, Miroslav Lajcak, told the media: “This was a compromise and Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot advance without a compromise.”
However, harsh verbal duels have continued between Tihic and Silajdzic and local and international analysts say that these tensions pose a continuing threat to the stability of Bosnia.
Significantly, the SDA, SNSD and HDZ do not have a majority in the State Parliament to ensure implementation of the agreement. If the SZBH and HDZ1990 continue to oppose the deal, therefore, the three parties will have to seek new partners. One obvious potential partner is the opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, whose support could ensure adoption of the agreement. However, it would also probably spell the end of the current ruling six-party coalition.
Gordana Katana, Banja Luka-based correspondent for the daily Oslobodjenje, said the current impasse could last right up till the next general elections in 2010, with disastrous consequences for all.
On the other hand, Tihic may go for early general elections in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Bosniak-Croat entity, to strengthen his hand against Silajdzic.
Analysts also point out that the animosities that formerly raged between the ethnic communities have now shifted mainly to rival leaders within the same ethnic groups. This is especially so among the Bosniak and Croat communities. “These relations are deeply, deeply disturbed,” Katana says.
The next meeting of leaders of the six ruling parties, scheduled for early December, will give some indication of the direction in which the country is moving.
Srecko Latal is regular Balkan Insight contributor. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.
13 November 2008 Sudden agreement reached by the three strongest parties may offer way out of current deadlock, but only if it is implemented.
By Srecko Latal in Sarajevo
European officials have “noted with satisfaction” the recent “historic” agreement between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three ruling parties and have “invited the Bosnian political forces to unite around this project”.
The statement issued by the European Commission’s External Relations Council, refers to the out-of-the-blue agreement reached over the weekend by three parties – the Bosnian Serb Union of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, the Bosniak party of Democratic Action, SDA, and the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ – over some hotly disputed issues.
Resolution of these issues is seen as crucial for the continuation of Bosnia’s EU accession process and for the closure of the Office of the High Representative, OHR.
Only last month, European officials were describing the political deadlock in Bosnia in alarming terms.
On October 10, the Council “voiced deep concern at recent developments in the political situation… particularly the use of nationalist rhetoric and the implementation of unilateral decisions by some leaders, thereby jeopardizing power-sharing and the foundations of the state.”
But while the latest agreement has been hailed as “historic” by local media and international officials, it may not take effect. Having strained already-fragile relations within the ruling coalition to breaking point, Bosnia may face new political deadlock, therefore, or fresh elections.
“Everything is possible now”, an editor of the influential Sarajevo daily Dnevni Avaz, Sead Numanovic, told the Balkan Insight.
For two years, Bosnia’s political scene has been dominated by infighting, radical rhetoric and personal animosities among local leaders.
The principal quarrel has pitted Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serb SNSD, against Haris Silajdzic, head of the Bosniak Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, SZBH.
The quarrels, which started ahead of the 2006 general elections, have tainted relations between the parties and increased ethnic tension.
The resulting political deadlock has blocked the progress, or reversed, crucial institutional, economic and social reforms, affecting the country’s hopes of eventual EU membership.
The international community meanwhile has appeared distracted by other foreign challenges, in Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo – and its coherence has been diluted by Russia’s growing engagement in the Balkans on the side of its Serbian allies.
The European Union finally awoke to the scale of the problem a month ago, after foreign diplomats and local officials warned that Bosnia faced division or even armed conflict.
European diplomats launched a diplomatic offensive, resulting in the drafting of a new strategy for Bosnia based on stronger engagement as well as a continued mandate for the EU peace forces, EUFOR.
Sources close to Brussels officials and Bosnia’s own leadership, told Balkan Insight that the EU offensive contributed to the “historic agreement” reached suddenly on October 8 in the northern town of Bosanski Samac.
Another key element behind this breakthrough was the action of the leader of the SDA, Sulejman Tihic.
In the October 5 local elections, the SDA scored a sweeping victory among Bosniak voters, reinforcing Tihic’s previously fragile position in his own party as well as his position in relation to his biggest rival, Haris Silajdzic of the SZBH.
On October 13, Tihic surprised everybody by appearing at a tense session of the Bosnian Serb parliament and tried to calm local politicians, infuriated by Silajdzic’s anti-Serbian rhetoric.
On October 15, Tihic met the President of Croatia, Stipe Mesic, and the Croatian Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader, in Zagreb, before traveling to Belgrade on November 4 to meet Serbia’s President, Boris Tadic.
After the meetings, both Croatian and Serbian leaders came up with strong public statements in support of Bosnia’s territorial integrity.
Western diplomats told Balkan Insight that soon after the Belgrade meeting, Tadic telephoned Dodik, who is also Prime Minister of the Republika Srpska.
Details of this private conversation have not been made public but the conversation clearly helped create a positive atmosphere for the October 8 meeting of Bosnian leaders.
At the meeting, Dodik, Tihic and Dragan Covic, leader of the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, agreed in outline within only two hours on how to resolve several issues that have vexed the country for two years now.
One is the future status of the District of Brcko. Here, they agreed that further constitutional reform and legalization of the status of Brcko District would be undertaken through proper parliamentary procedures.
Another was a compromise over the questions that would be covered in the 2011 census. They also agreed basic principles concerning the division of state property.
If the agreement lasts, it would fulfill most key preconditions for the closure of the OHR, which would mark a major step towards fulfillment of the requirements for EU membership.
However, the successful implementation of the deal was immediately put in doubt after two junior coalition parties in government – and their leaders – who were not invited to the meeting, rejected the agreement and slammed their partners-turn-opponents.
A split-off from the HDZ, HDZ1990, led by Bozo Ljubic, accused the big three parties of trying to establish “a monopoly” in terms of their representation of the three main ethnic communities.
Silajdzic went further, accusing Tihic of “betraying” Bosniak interests and of yielding to Dodik’s pressure.
The three parties behind the agreement, as well as international officials, rebuffed these criticisms.
In particular, the High Representative, Miroslav Lajcak, told the media: “This was a compromise and Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot advance without a compromise.”
However, harsh verbal duels have continued between Tihic and Silajdzic and local and international analysts say that these tensions pose a continuing threat to the stability of Bosnia.
Significantly, the SDA, SNSD and HDZ do not have a majority in the State Parliament to ensure implementation of the agreement. If the SZBH and HDZ1990 continue to oppose the deal, therefore, the three parties will have to seek new partners. One obvious potential partner is the opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, whose support could ensure adoption of the agreement. However, it would also probably spell the end of the current ruling six-party coalition.
Gordana Katana, Banja Luka-based correspondent for the daily Oslobodjenje, said the current impasse could last right up till the next general elections in 2010, with disastrous consequences for all.
On the other hand, Tihic may go for early general elections in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Bosniak-Croat entity, to strengthen his hand against Silajdzic.
Analysts also point out that the animosities that formerly raged between the ethnic communities have now shifted mainly to rival leaders within the same ethnic groups. This is especially so among the Bosniak and Croat communities. “These relations are deeply, deeply disturbed,” Katana says.
The next meeting of leaders of the six ruling parties, scheduled for early December, will give some indication of the direction in which the country is moving.
Srecko Latal is regular Balkan Insight contributor. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.