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Post by Illyrian_Bosniak on Nov 14, 2007 19:23:16 GMT -5
Who will be victorious, serbs, croats or native Bosniaks? What ethno-geographical rearrangements to expect?
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 14, 2007 22:46:19 GMT -5
It would end up in a stalemate, or the complete destruction and annexation of BiH by Croatia and Serbia. If all 3 ethnicities started a war, then it would be hell for all 3, but the Governments of Croatia and Serbia would not stand for it, and would intervene.
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Post by BIH General on Nov 16, 2007 22:19:56 GMT -5
what, it wont be like in 1992 and it wont end up in Srebrenica dudakovic and the other generals will come out of retirement and eliminate all Croas and Serbs from Bosnia
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 17, 2007 0:37:11 GMT -5
^ Dude, are you smoking ganja? Croatia and Serbia would get involved if there began a mass massacre of Croats and Serbs. Then Bosnia would be carved up. I suggest you not get involved in any politics until you develop a rational way of thinking. How old are you dude?
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Post by theblackswans on Nov 17, 2007 22:20:27 GMT -5
^ Dude, are you smoking ganja? Croatia and Serbia would get involved if there began a mass massacre of Croats and Serbs. Then Bosnia would be carved up. I suggest you not get involved in any politics until you develop a rational way of thinking. How old are you dude? Who said anything about a massacre that is for the cetniks, they like to show there courage by killing the unarmed and woman and children. America and Croatia would support the Armija BiH, Serbia's army is weak today. They barely have enough fuel to fly there planes. Serbia would have a hard time supporting the RS like they did in the 1990's. It would still be an ugly war, if the Bosnians are smart they will stay aligned with the Croats, give them some concessions and drive the facist serbs out of Bosnia back to Kosovo. The Serbs who support a unified BiH (and there are at least 100,000 of them in Bosnia) could and would stay. Serbs have returned to Croatia after storm who aren't war criminals and the situation has improved for all. The Bosnian Army is much stronger than in 1995. They have an officer corps properly trained to western standards, generals, logistics, weapons and a more defensible position than the last time. Most serbian leaders from the last war and dead or in Jail. Also Mladic was a crap general, if you ask military historians he did a terrible job considering what he faced and what he accomplished. He was a drunk, brash evil little man who's mouth wrote checks he couldn't cash. The VRS collapsed like a deck of cards in 1995 when there communications was disrupted and there supply lines were cut. Let's hope it doesn't happen but the Serbs need to realize they don't hold all the cards like 1992.
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Post by radovic on Nov 17, 2007 22:26:53 GMT -5
^ You idiolize the BiH army. Serbia's army is weaker but it is not as weak as people claim. BiH's army is composed of 10,000 troops + 5,000 troops and I believe that of that 5,000 are Serb. Plus, if a war was to break out Serbia wouldn't get involved it would be Serbian paramilitaries fighting and the Serbian state would do nothing to stop their actions.
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Post by theblackswans on Nov 17, 2007 22:39:42 GMT -5
^ You idiolize the BiH army. Serbia's army is weaker but it is not as weak as people claim. BiH's army is composed of 10,000 troops + 5,000 troops and I believe that of that 5,000 are Serb. Plus, if a war was to break out Serbia wouldn't get involved it would be Serbian paramilitaries fighting and the Serbian state would do nothing to stop their actions. 120,000 Bosniaks cut there teeth in the last war, the most rs could muster is 40-60,000. The reason why the VRS was so sucessful in 1992 1)inherited the JNA weapons and men 2) held all the munitions factories and stores 3) were supported and ressuplied constantly from Serbia and Croatia 4) Held all the stratigic high ground and roads in the country 5) faced almost no oppostion early in the war 6) the arms embargo only worked against Armija BiH. None of this is true today. There is no arms emargo against Armija BiH like last time as well, people wouldn't stand for another go around like last time I believe. I hope it doesn't come to war, expatriats and cowards talk about how great another one would be. The people of Bosnia deserve peace and stability not more bloodshed. It is always those living outside of the country who try to prove there "nationalism" to others, it is such BS.
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Post by radovic on Nov 17, 2007 23:20:03 GMT -5
^ You idiolize the BiH army. Serbia's army is weaker but it is not as weak as people claim. BiH's army is composed of 10,000 troops + 5,000 troops and I believe that of that 5,000 are Serb. Plus, if a war was to break out Serbia wouldn't get involved it would be Serbian paramilitaries fighting and the Serbian state would do nothing to stop their actions. 120,000 Bosniaks cut there teeth in the last war, the most rs could muster is 40-60,000. The reason why the VRS was so sucessful in 1992 1)inherited the JNA weapons and men 2) held all the munitions factories and stores 3) were supported and ressuplied constantly from Serbia and Croatia 4) Held all the stratigic high ground and roads in the country 5) faced almost no oppostion early in the war 6) the arms embargo only worked against Armija BiH. None of this is true today. There is no arms emargo against Armija BiH like last time as well, people wouldn't stand for another go around like last time I believe. I hope it doesn't come to war, expatriats and cowards talk about how great another one would be. The people of Bosnia deserve peace and stability not more bloodshed. It is always those living outside of the country who try to prove there "nationalism" to others, it is such BS. I don't think a war would happen. A new war would be bloodier then a previous one. Citizens within the country don't want war, those outside do. Not only that but I think your prediction on how war would turn out is wrong for several reasons. The Bosnian Army is a small force, any war would be thought by paramilitaries. Serbia would not get involved but it would refuse to prevent militaries from being armed by people in Serbia. Second, thje U.S. would not support the Bosnian Army if it fired the first shot.
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Post by zgembo on Nov 20, 2007 13:40:18 GMT -5
The characteristics of the war would be very different I think. It would no longer be a free-for-all of neighbours killing neighbours. Serbs and Bosniaks are largely segregated in their statelets at the present time. The war could only be one of expansion now (Muslims trying to conquer Serbian inhabited parts of RS, or Serbs trying to conquer Muslim-inhabited parts of the FBiH). In either case, the motivation for fighting a war would be low amongst the populace.
If anything, I think the motivation among the average Serb would be bigger. Fighting for your independence (i.e. survival) has that effect. Despite what some warmongers here say, the motivation among Muslims would be small. They only have a thirst for revenge going their way, and that doesn't carry over in a good or widespread way during a war (at least not succesfully). I just don't see enough desire on behalf of the Muslims to keep RS in Bosnia (there would be mass desertions).
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Post by zgembo on Nov 20, 2007 13:43:57 GMT -5
People really overestimate the desire of any one majority nation to keep a non-functioning country together. There were mass desertions amongst Serbs too when Slovenia and Croatia were trying to be kept in Yugoslavia by force. The only motivated contingent of Serbs were the local Croat and Bosnian Serbs (who believed they were fighting for their survival). You need that kind of mentality to fight a war. Keeping RS from seceding is not a matter of survival for Bosniaks.
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Post by radovic on Nov 20, 2007 13:59:50 GMT -5
People really overestimate the desire of any one majority nation to keep a non-functioning country together. There were mass desertions amongst Serbs too when Slovenia and Croatia were trying to be kept in Yugoslavia by force. The only motivated contingent of Serbs were the local Croat and Bosnian Serbs (who believed they were fighting for their survival). You need that kind of mentality to fight a war. Keeping RS from seceding is not a matter of survival for Bosniaks. In the book "The Myth of Ethnic War" by V.P. Gagnon Jr. he sights that over 80% of people in Serbia recruited during the times of the troubles in Croatia fled. Only those in Croatia or Bosnia were active in supporting the war (the other 20% were from families originally from Croatia or Bosnia).
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Post by srbobran on Nov 20, 2007 17:42:17 GMT -5
The desertions were primarily in Croatia and Slovenia; Serbs in Bosnia were much more motivated and their moral was higher.
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 20, 2007 20:29:19 GMT -5
^ The morale was definatelly higher, yes. It is because Serbs in Bosnia were a very large minority, and still are. As Marko said, their mentality was "Fighting for Survival" and that is why the war was so bitter and stubborn from all sides.
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Post by radovic on Nov 21, 2007 12:43:00 GMT -5
The desertions were primarily in Croatia and Slovenia; Serbs in Bosnia were much more motivated and their moral was higher. Most JNA recruits in Bosnia at the time were either from Bosnia or from Montenegro. Those from Serbia were few, so in Bosnia their were far less desertions.
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Anthologic
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Post by Anthologic on Nov 22, 2007 2:44:55 GMT -5
Uh hello? While we're fighting ourselves China's 1 billion man army would rape the world.
edit* Starting with Japan of course.
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 22, 2007 15:50:24 GMT -5
^ LOL! The Japs are going to change their constitution that allows them to have a military force that can strike from beyond their shores, something that was implimented to the Meiji Constitution in 1947.
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Post by theblackswans on Nov 22, 2007 21:16:57 GMT -5
^ LOL! The Japs are going to change their constitution that allows them to have a military force that can strike from beyond their shores, something that was implimented to the Meiji Constitution in 1947. Now there is a raping and pillaging bunch those Japanese, even thought they don't get the press they were as awful as the Nazis, trying to spread the plague in China and the "comfort women" for there soldiers.
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MiG
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Post by MiG on Nov 22, 2007 21:53:38 GMT -5
^ LOL! The Japs are going to change their constitution that allows them to have a military force that can strike from beyond their shores, something that was implimented to the Meiji Constitution in 1947. Now there is a raping and pillaging bunch those Japanese, even thought they don't get the press they were as awful as the Nazis, trying to spread the plague in China and the "comfort women" for there soldiers. Oh yeah. Remember they started off in 1931 with the Second Sino-Japanese War. They Japs are nuts bro, they are so extreme. It's amazing that such a Social Code can develop in a Civilization/Culture.
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Post by radovic on Nov 22, 2007 22:35:49 GMT -5
^ LOL! The Japs are going to change their constitution that allows them to have a military force that can strike from beyond their shores, something that was implimented to the Meiji Constitution in 1947. The 1947 constitution is not the Meiji constitution. Meiji refers to the period in Japan from 1867-1912. Furthermore. Japan has a military force. However the current constitution mentions it as a "peaceful" force. It is not called an army but a "self-defense force."
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Post by radovic on Nov 22, 2007 22:36:51 GMT -5
Uh hello? While we're fighting ourselves China's 1 billion man army would rape the world. edit* Starting with Japan of course. Japan would be hard to defeat. Many Japanese would fight to the death -- i.e. kamikaze.
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