Creating a Balkan Union (4 versions)

[Emperor AAdmin]

I can easily see a Balkan union occurring in the future (especially if it means getting a bigger voice within EU or if EU collapses then almost it is a certainty). The BU creation and thus inclusion would consist of several waves.

Waves are depicted bellow by priority.

I) 1st or initial wave would consist of countries such as Montenegro, Serbia, FYROM, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus which are almost certain to be members of such a union (if it was to ever exist).

II) 2nd wave (probable) would consist of including Albania, Bosnia & Hercegovina and Moldova.

III) 3rd wave is including Croatia and Hungary.
IV) 4th and final wave would be including Turkey.
(3rd and 4th wave are questionable in terms of probability)

Bellow is a map of such an idea



A) 1st wave population is around 54 million people (almost like France, UK or Italy population numbers)
B) 1st +2nd wave population is around 65 million people (more then France, UK or Italy population numbers)
C) 1st + 2nd + 3rd wave population is around 80 million (like Germany's numbers)
D) 1+2+3+4 wave population is around (staggering) 150 million (a bit above Russia's population numbers)

Impact: Such union (in any of the forms above) would have a much larger say in running their own affairs and much larger (political, economical, military etc) influence in surrounding regions and even world affairs not to mention that it would mutually benefit all on so many levels.

Probability: I say it is almost certain that BU will exist in the future in whatever form (whether within EU or outside it). It is either having such a union and having your own say through it or remain virtual colonies without say to bigger world powers (Russia, UK, US and current German-Franch axis that runs EU) as the situation is obviously now. Being in such a union doesn't mean losing ones say but actually gaining it (given how small Balkan countries are).

Additional notes:

1) RS would not be encouraged to join at the inception of BU but with the rest of B&H (2nd wave) to avoid unnecessary complications with the west (as BU would not have been yet cemented as an entity). Again considering that B&H would be joining BU with a high probability there is not need for RS to make separate moves. 2) Moldova (perhaps initially joining BU without tiny Transdnestr as BU would need strong relationship with emerging Russia as well as others) is basically another Romanian state and it would almost most certainly join BU as would Albania and B&H in the 2nd wave. 3) Cyprus would also initially join BU (1st wave) as it is at this point. 4) Serbia would also join BU as it is at this point. In other words assumption is that nothing changes on the ground at the beginning of the start of BU other then creation of the union itself. The idea is for the process to create BU to be as smooth as possible and to have the least possible friction caused by others such as west at the inception of BU.

Side Note: I am sure there are people supporting this idea and if properly presented there would be a lot more as it offers far more benefits then it doesn't (in today's geopolitics bigger is most certainly better while small equals bondage).

[Novus Dis]

I would support the 1st wave plus Bosnia (which would essentially be an Orthodox Christian alliance). But the major problem here is population shifts. If the BU did exist then every country would have to give cultural minorities wide autonomy so the alliance/confederation doesn't dismantle. Also, there would need to be an official language for the BU and there would need to be an HQ for the alliance/confederation. Personally, I would rather the HQ be in Constantinople/Byzantium and that the official language be Greek.

If there will be an alliance/confederation (between Balkan states) no matter what then its best to revive the ERE.

[Emperor AAdmin]

reposting:

I was at cia.gov site and looking at some stats relating to
GDP - per capita (purchasing power parity) and Serbia stands at $10,400 (2007 est.)

www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ri.html

Compare some 'Balkan' countries

01) Greece...................................... $30,600 (2007 est.)
02) Slovenia.................................... $28,000 (2007 est.)
03) Cyprus...................................... $27,100 (2007 est.)
04) Hungary.................................... $19,300 (2007 est.)
05) Croatia...................................... $15,500 (2007 est.)
06) Turkey....................................... $12,000 (2007 est.)
07) Bulgaria.................................... $11,800 (2007 est.)
08) Romania................................... $11,100 (2007 est.)
09) Serbia...................................... $10,400 (2007 est.)
10) 'Macedonia'.............................. $8,400 (2007 est.)
11) Bosnia and Herzegovina............. $6,100 (2007 est.)
12) Albania.................................... $5,800 (2007 est.)
13) Montenegro.............................. $3,800 (2005 est.)
14) Moldova..................................... $2,300 (2007 est.)
15) 'Kosovo'...................................... $1,800 (2007 est.)

Compare to richest, biggest and poorest countries in the world.

Luxembourg ..................................... $79,400 (2007 est.)
USA................................................... $45,800 (2007 est.)
Germany........................................... $34,100 (2007 est.)
Russia............................................... $14,800 (2007 est.)
China................................................ $5,400 (2007 est.)
India................................................. $2,600 (2007 est.)
Malawi............................................... $800 (2007 est.)
Ethiopia............................................. $700 (2007 est.)
Somalia............................................. $600 (2007 est.)

IDEA: There is no way that vast majority of these Balkan countries are economically better off alone then in a BU. Certainly same argument can be made in terms of geopolitics, military etc.

[Novus Dis]

And your opinion about reviving the ERE?

[Demonel]

1st wave only, and stay away from BiH.

[tito]

I will support BU when Turkey/Germany is a member and Serbia is either excluded or annexed by Turkey/Germany.

[Emperor AAdmin]

I think I just figured what ERE means and that is Eastern Roman Empire and my response is that what I am proposing would be some sort of modern secular version of that for 21st century. I want some kind of united front here and if that means having some sort of modern version of ERE versus being divided and weak then I would pick that over second option any day. But again I have a very very strong preference for a modern secular BU that would stand on its own feet and follow its own rules and regulations (set out by themselves and not dictated by the outsiders). I believe also in some ways it is ok to be conservative as long as reason dictates it as far as specific issues are concerned (that being conservative in such case is more progressive or beneficial versus available alternatives). Common language I also believe should be Greek (also English as global linqua franca) while center of such union should probably be Athens.

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1st wave only, and stay away from BiH.

I am pretty sure that B&H would in due time join in BU and refuse to stand on sidelines while bordering such massive state as BU (and especially since half of it, RS to be specific, might want to join it regardless). Otherwise BU can be patient and wait until a more BU friendly government is in place and proceed from there (it is not like B&H is calling its own shoots now and that they might lose their say in their own affairs, if anything they would gain it as they are clearly with Kosovo UN Protectorate or colony ruled by bigger powers).


I will support BU when Turkey/Germany is a member and Serbia is either excluded or annexed by Turkey/Germany.

Now you are being plain silly especially about Germany joining BU or Serbia being annexed by Turkey/Germany (especially in light of being part of equally powerful BU that might foster close relationship with Russia). BU if cards are played right would be among the top 2-3 players as far as Europe is concerned. In addition - Turkey might also become part of it at later phases which would place it in top 2 in Europe with Russia (certainly in such situation Germany would permanently become a non-issue - once and for all).

[Emperor AAdmin]

Tracking Votes

I support 1st wave only for BU
* Demonel, Praporshchik Bosnatron,

I support 1st and 2nd wave
* peccafly, Emperor AAdmin,

I support 1+2+3 only
* lvl100, ioan, bihvojska,

I support 1+2+3+4
*Tito, wbb, Kapetan,

I am againts BU in any form
*Highduke, ILIR, RuseBG, zogist,

I am not sure
* hellboy87, Skoric,

I do not care for this issue
*Pejoni, Ballisti, Edlund,

Forget Balkans
*yeniceri01, rex362, CiKoLa, Kastorianos, Annitas,
benzino, bb681, arpagjiki, Black Eagle,

[lvl100]

There are more problems that "why dont we just get along" line of thought.


What makes EU to work now, its not the good will of its members, but a huge political/economical infrastracture : Laws to satisfy everyone, complete standardization of production/services , and so on.

The effort for the extremely heterogeneous Balkans would be huge and the final results dubious at best.
Remember , there is no economic tractor here,no Marshall plan , no BRD bailing out DDR , just a bunch of 3rd and 2nd world countries trying to work out their poverty while fighting (economically) with the other competitors (Russia , EU, USA etc)

And that just one simple point of view.
In reality we have already the rich EU near us, the focal point which every country from this regions drools at the thought of joining it.
Basically now there are 2 types of countries : the ones who joined already and the others who wants to join.
There is absolutely no incentive now to quit on EU for our hypothetical union.

About the military part, we should.. no wait, nevermind
On a last note, Turkey joining this Union is more science fiction than the union itself.
Turkey is a huge country even comparing to Romania, the biggest country in this Union. And Turkey wants to play with the big boys.
It will probably try to attract some Balkan countries as satellites (and nothing more), but his main interests are UE and NATO

Personally i`m supporting anything that strengthens the relations between Balkans or surrounding countries, so im going with the 1+2+3 only
But with the current realpolitik a BU its impossible.

[Emperor AAdmin]

let me quote myself

especially if it means getting a bigger voice within EU OR if EU collapses then almost it is a certainty

I fail to see how having BU harms in any way EU, in fact it makes it more stable. As hedging your position is always a good thing then also we have a plan B in case EU is not in existence one day.

[Novus Dis]

Jan 1, 2009 12:55:32 GMT -5 @tito said:

I will support BU when Turkey/Germany is a member and Serbia is either excluded or annexed by Turkey/Germany.

That's why most countries don't allow prepubescents to vote.

Jan 1, 2009 12:59:03 GMT -5 Emperor AAdmin said:

I think I just figured what ERE means and that is Eastern Roman Empire and my response is that what I am proposing would be some sort of modern secular version of that for 21st century. I want some kind of united front here and if that means having some sort of modern version of ERE versus being divided and weak then I would pick that over second option any day. But again I have a very very strong preference for a modern secular BU that would stand on its own feet and follow its own rules and regulations (set out by themselves and not dictated by the outsiders). I believe also in some ways it is ok to be conservative as long as reason dictates it as far as specific issues are concerned (that being conservative in such case is more progressive or beneficial versus available alternatives). Common language I also believe should be Greek (also English as global linqua franca) while center of such union should probably be Athens.

What do you mean by "secular"? The states which you described as part of the 1st wave have Orthodox Christian populations at 80% or more. A secular state would definitely be anti-populist. I think that Orthodox Christianity should be made the state religion, donations to the church be redistributed and the state should help pay for the church's needs. You leave the church alone and then you have priests from the city driving around in SUVs while priests in the country cant afford to help their congregation.

As far as the issues revolving around morality (abortion, stem cells, gay marriage, etc) are concerned, those issues should be resolved by referendum. As far as issues revolving around plurality (religious, cultural and political minorities) are concerned, there are no issues.

Athens is the capital of modern day Greece. It has no historical or cultural bearing to be the HQ of a union among Orthodox Christian states. A temporary HQ should be in Skopje (for geographical practicality) until Byzantium is taken back.

[yeni]

Forget Balkans, and especially leave out Hungary. we are not Balkans. i support closer cooperation within the Visegrad group en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visegrad_group and i would be happy to see Slovenia and Croatia too in that team. But Balkan Union...no.

[fazlinho]

until Byzantium is taken back.

You probably meant Costantinople. Either way, good luck on taking it back.

I, nor the people in any of these states would support such an union... it's quite stupid seeing people thinking about it when yugoslavia herself felt apart. 6 countries couldn't agree on issues and you expect 10 to do it?

And the EU is going down theories are as silly as the US is going down ones.

[lvl100]

Jan 1, 2009 13:26:22 GMT -5 Emperor AAdmin said:

especially if it means getting a bigger voice within EU OR if EU collapses then almost it is a certainty
I fail to see how having BU harms in any way EU, in fact it makes it more stable. As hedging your position is always a good thing then also we have a plan B in case EU is not in existence one day.

No you cant have both. EU its not "regional trade agreement for golden fish protection"
Constructs like EU or this BU are exclusive by their own nature.
They are working almost similar to a super state.
Even the countries have the illusion they still do whatever they like, a farmer from Spain or Romania, still needs to watch that a cow poop to be the same like in the 4 tomes European regulation standards about cows`s excrement.
SO its "our way or the highway" rule. Which it makes sense, considering what a union means or should mean.

[Novus Dis]

Jan 1, 2009 13:38:28 GMT -5 @fazlinho said:

You probably meant Costantinople. Either way, good luck on taking it back.

The combined forces of Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece could easily destroy a the Turkish garrison set up in Byzantium.

[kasso]

a B.U. would only generate heated discussions about such things as origins, therefore it's doomed to failure

[Novus Dis]

ERE existed for a millennia.

[Emperor AAdmin]

The Visegrád Group, also called the Visegrád Four or V4, is an alliance of four Central European states – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – for the purposes of cooperation and furthering their European integration.

Looks like at least some sort of loophole as to why BU can exist and also with union this big I doubt EU will want to further dictate every single term of their existence without their consent.

Either way I would pick BU over EU any time as EU is really means of more advanced countries to economically usurp smaller one as well as for bigger countries to politically usurp smaller ones. Also Egos of Germany and France will eventually clash as big as they are (once tried to dominate the world twice in the last 100 years and the other being a huge colonialist power that views its language as only legit global linqua franca).

If this economic crisis lasts longer then 2-3 years existence of EU will be tested in a major way so EU better learn to become more flexible especially considering that the primary purpose behind its initial creation was economic and only that (therefore it doesn't really have any substance beyond that) .

The European Economic Community (EEC, it was also known as the "Common Market" in the United Kingdom) was an international organisation created in 1957 to bring about economic integration between Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Community

[kasso]

Jan 1, 2009 13:42:38 GMT -5 Novus Dis said:

ERE existed for a millennia.

but that was different times and different circumstances

[Emperor AAdmin]

a B.U. would only generate heated discussions about such things as origins, therefore it's doomed to failure

Origins of what, you mean ethic origins? Who cares in the light of grand schemes. We are a group of small insignificant little countries that will (if left alone) become devoured (like sheep) by next big hungry wolf. All I am saying is that sheep should at least unite (like Alaskan yaks) to increase their chances of survival. Left alone they will perish a lot easier and one by one (rings a bell or just like Ottomans did their conquests).



but that was different times and different circumstances

People who each lived in whatever given era believed that their era was special and unique and separate from any other and void of having the ability of being compared with it. Guess what, they were always wrong, and history always repeated itself as it is bound to occur in the future.