Creating a Balkan Union (4 versions) Jan 1, 2009 12:11:20 GMT -5
Post by Emperor AAdmin on Jan 1, 2009 12:11:20 GMT -5
I can easily see a Balkan union occurring in the future (especially if it means getting a bigger voice within EU or if EU collapses then almost it is a certainty). The BU creation and thus inclusion would consist of several waves.
Waves are depicted bellow by priority.
I) 1st or initial wave would consist of countries such as Montenegro, Serbia, FYROM, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus which are almost certain to be members of such a union (if it was to ever exist).
II) 2nd wave (probable) would consist of including Albania, Bosnia & Hercegovina and Moldova.
III) 3rd wave is including Croatia and Hungary.
IV) 4th and final wave would be including Turkey.
(3rd and 4th wave are questionable in terms of probability)
Bellow is a map of such an idea
A) 1st wave population is around 54 million people (almost like France, UK or Italy population numbers)
B) 1st +2nd wave population is around 65 million people (more then France, UK or Italy population numbers)
C) 1st + 2nd + 3rd wave population is around 80 million (like Germany's numbers)
D) 1+2+3+4 wave population is around (staggering) 150 million (a bit above Russia's population numbers)
Impact: Such union (in any of the forms above) would have a much larger say in running their own affairs and much larger (political, economical, military etc) influence in surrounding regions and even world affairs not to mention that it would mutually benefit all on so many levels.
Probability: I say it is almost certain that BU will exist in the future in whatever form (whether within EU or outside it). It is either having such a union and having your own say through it or remain virtual colonies without say to bigger world powers (Russia, UK, US and current German-Franch axis that runs EU) as the situation is obviously now. Being in such a union doesn't mean losing ones say but actually gaining it (given how small Balkan countries are).
1) RS would not be encouraged to join at the inception of BU but with the rest of B&H (2nd wave) to avoid unnecessary complications with the west (as BU would not have been yet cemented as an entity). Again considering that B&H would be joining BU with a high probability there is not need for RS to make separate moves. 2) Moldova (perhaps initially joining BU without tiny Transdnestr as BU would need strong relationship with emerging Russia as well as others) is basically another Romanian state and it would almost most certainly join BU as would Albania and B&H in the 2nd wave. 3) Cyprus would also initially join BU (1st wave) as it is at this point. 4) Serbia would also join BU as it is at this point. In other words assumption is that nothing changes on the ground at the beginning of the start of BU other then creation of the union itself. The idea is for the process to create BU to be as smooth as possible and to have the least possible friction caused by others such as west at the inception of BU.
Side Note: I am sure there are people supporting this idea and if properly presented there would be a lot more as it offers far more benefits then it doesn't (in today's geopolitics bigger is most certainly better while small equals bondage).